تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

With 1.0581 resistance intact, consolidation from there might extend further. Below 1.0465 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0388 and below. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

With 1.0581 resistance intact, consolidation from there might extend further. Below 1.0465 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0388 and below. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9525 continues. Another rise cannot be ruled out but even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9525 continues. Another rise cannot be ruled out but even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside as pull back from 85.51 continues. . Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside as pull back from 85.51 continues. . Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidations from 0.8922 is still in progress. Recent rally is still expected to continue. Above 0.8892 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. After all, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidations from 0.8922 is still in progress. Recent rally is still expected to continue. Above 0.8892 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. After all, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's consolidation from 1.2843 might extend further but even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's consolidation from 1.2843 might extend further but even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 extends further today and reaches 118.93 so far. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper fall but downside is expected to be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 121.46 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 extends further today and reaches 118.93 so far. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper fall but downside is expected to be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 121.46 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's pull back from 139.99 extends further today and dips to 134.86 so far. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for further decline. But still, downside is expected to be contained by above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 137.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's pull back from 139.99 extends further today and dips to 134.86 so far. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for further decline. But still, downside is expected to be contained by above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 137.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD's pull back from 1.4519 extends further to as low as 1.4298 in early US session. Consolidation from 1.4519 might still extend further. But at this point, we'd still expect strong support from 1.4247 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.4519 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.4247 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015).
In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD's pull back from 1.4519 extends further to as low as 1.4298 in early US session. Consolidation from 1.4519 might still extend further. But at this point, we'd still expect strong support from 1.4247 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.4519 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.4247 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015).
In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6426 continues. Even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6426 continues. Even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains cautiously on the downside and a break of 0.8895 will extend recent decline towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 will suggest short term bottoming and bring recovery through 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9028).

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains cautiously on the downside and a break of 0.8895 will extend recent decline towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 will suggest short term bottoming and bring recovery through 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9028).

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.