تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extends further to as low as 82.54 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper decline. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extends further to as low as 82.54 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper decline. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURGBP's pull back from 0.8922 extends further to as low as 0.8767 so far today. Deeper decline could be seen but we'd still expect downside to be contained by 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) and bring rally resumption. Above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8676).

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EURGBP's pull back from 0.8922 extends further to as low as 0.8767 so far today. Deeper decline could be seen but we'd still expect downside to be contained by 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) and bring rally resumption. Above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8676).

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumes today and reaches as low as 1.2757 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.2948 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumes today and reaches as low as 1.2757 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.2948 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after made a clear break below 1.4350, slipped below the bullish channel and bottomed at 1.4156. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently below the bullish channel and 1.4156 testing 1.4035. Although remains intact, the major bullish scenario is under a serious pressure and need another move back above 1.4350 to keep the bullish scenario strong. Immediate resistance at 1.4280 – 1.4300. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4350.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after made a clear break below 1.4350, slipped below the bullish channel and bottomed at 1.4156. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently below the bullish channel and 1.4156 testing 1.4035. Although remains intact, the major bullish scenario is under a serious pressure and need another move back above 1.4350 to keep the bullish scenario strong. Immediate resistance at 1.4280 – 1.4300. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4350.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.6164 but closed higher at 1.6263. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the overall intraday bias should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.6320 followed by 1.6400. On the downside, another move below 1.6220 could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.6090.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.6164 but closed higher at 1.6263. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the overall intraday bias should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.6320 followed by 1.6400. On the downside, another move below 1.6220 could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.6090.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 0.9000 – 0.8900 indicates consolidation. The major scenario remains bearish but like I said yesterday, we have potential bearish exhaustion and bullish pullback testing 0.9000/55. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.8900 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8850/00.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 0.9000 – 0.8900 indicates consolidation. The major scenario remains bearish but like I said yesterday, we have potential bearish exhaustion and bullish pullback testing 0.9000/55. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.8900 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8850/00.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after break below the descending triangle as you can see on my hourly chart below bottomed at 82.17 but was corrected higher and hit 82.67 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still testing 82.00. A clear break below 82.00 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.50. However, beware of potential intervention by the Japanese government and G7 countries to weaken the Yen.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after break below the descending triangle as you can see on my hourly chart below bottomed at 82.17 but was corrected higher and hit 82.67 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still testing 82.00. A clear break below 82.00 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.50. However, beware of potential intervention by the Japanese government and G7 countries to weaken the Yen.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.46 and closed at 117.41. The V-Top formation gave us a valid bearish signal. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 116.00. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 113.50. Immediate resistance at 118.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 119.30 the intraday bias remains more to the downside

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.46 and closed at 117.41. The V-Top formation gave us a valid bearish signal. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 116.00. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 113.50. Immediate resistance at 118.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 119.30 the intraday bias remains more to the downside

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after made a clear break below 135.00, bottomed at 132.97 and closed at 134.13. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 132.50. Immediate resistance at 134.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 135.00 the intraday bias should more to the downside.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after made a clear break below 135.00, bottomed at 132.97 and closed at 134.13. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 132.50. Immediate resistance at 134.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 135.00 the intraday bias should more to the downside.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, break below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0400 – 1.0330. Immediate resistance at 1.0500. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but unless price makes a clear break above 1.0581 we are still in a bearish correction phase.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, break below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0400 – 1.0330. Immediate resistance at 1.0500. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but unless price makes a clear break above 1.0581 we are still in a bearish correction phase.