تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.4157 so far and the break of 1.4247 support dampens the immediate bullish view. Nevertheless, outlook is not too bad yet as EUR/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel. We'll stay neutral first. A break above 1.4364 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4519 has likely completed and will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4519 will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.4157 so far and the break of 1.4247 support dampens the immediate bullish view. Nevertheless, outlook is not too bad yet as EUR/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel. We'll stay neutral first. A break above 1.4364 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4519 has likely completed and will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4519 will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD dives to as low as 1.6166 but drew support from mentioned 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and recovered quickly. Outlook remains unchanged as we'd still treat price actions from 1.6426 as consolidations only. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 1.6382 will suggest that recent rally is resuming for 1.6426 and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, break of 1.6166 will now dampen this view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD dives to as low as 1.6166 but drew support from mentioned 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and recovered quickly. Outlook remains unchanged as we'd still treat price actions from 1.6426 as consolidations only. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 1.6382 will suggest that recent rally is resuming for 1.6426 and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, break of 1.6166 will now dampen this view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF should have made a temporary low at 0.8895 and stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9017) and above. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9198) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF should have made a temporary low at 0.8895 and stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9017) and above. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9198) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops to as low as 82.18 so far but is still holding above mentioned 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03). Outlook remains unchanged as we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops to as low as 82.18 so far but is still holding above mentioned 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03). Outlook remains unchanged as we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's dropped to as low as 0.8739 so far but is still holding above mentioned 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705). Outlook remains unchanged and we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Above 0.8807 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 0.8922 and then 0.8940 resistance. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8681) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's dropped to as low as 0.8739 so far but is still holding above mentioned 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705). Outlook remains unchanged and we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Above 0.8807 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 0.8922 and then 0.8940 resistance. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8681) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 132.98 so far and is now trying to draw support from mentioned 132.96 resistance turned support, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99. The bullish outlook remains unchanged and we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 132.98 so far and is now trying to draw support from mentioned 132.96 resistance turned support, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99. The bullish outlook remains unchanged and we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY drops sharply to as low as 116.46 but is still holding above 115.96 resistance turned support. Outlook remains unchanged. Rebound from 106.57 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Above 119.25 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 123.31 first and break will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. However, note that sustained trading below 115.53 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY drops sharply to as low as 116.46 but is still holding above 115.96 resistance turned support. Outlook remains unchanged. Rebound from 106.57 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Above 119.25 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 123.31 first and break will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. However, note that sustained trading below 115.53 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF drops to as low as 1.2785 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, consolidation from 1.2401 might have completed with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Sustained break of 1.2736 will affirm this view and should push EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low to resume the larger down trend. On the upside, break of 1.2948 minor resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF drops to as low as 1.2785 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, consolidation from 1.2401 might have completed with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Sustained break of 1.2736 will affirm this view and should push EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low to resume the larger down trend. On the upside, break of 1.2948 minor resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.0581 is still in progress and break of 1.0465 minor support now flips bias to the downside for 1.0388 and possibly below. But after all, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.0581 is still in progress and break of 1.0465 minor support now flips bias to the downside for 1.0388 and possibly below. But after all, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's recovery extends further to as high as 0.9720 and more consolidation could still be seen. But after all, upside is expected to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9587 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's recovery extends further to as high as 0.9720 and more consolidation could still be seen. But after all, upside is expected to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9587 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.