تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

As noted before, since EUR/USD is still holding well inside near term rising channel, outlook is not turned bearish yet despite deeper than expected fall from 1.4519. We'll stay neutral first. A break above 1.4364 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4519 has likely completed and will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4519 will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

As noted before, since EUR/USD is still holding well inside near term rising channel, outlook is not turned bearish yet despite deeper than expected fall from 1.4519. We'll stay neutral first. A break above 1.4364 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4519 has likely completed and will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4519 will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6426 is still in progress. On the upside, above 1.6382 will suggest that recent rally is resuming for 1.6426 and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, note that break of 1.6166 will will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6426 is still in progress. On the upside, above 1.6382 will suggest that recent rally is resuming for 1.6426 and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, note that break of 1.6166 will will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8895 temporary low is still in progress and stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9017) and above. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9198) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8895 temporary low is still in progress and stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9017) and above. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9198) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's sharp fall and break of 0.9587 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.9525 is already completed at 0.9720. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9525 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. In case of more consolidation, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's sharp fall and break of 0.9587 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.9525 is already completed at 0.9720. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9525 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. In case of more consolidation, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday after unable to stay consistently below the bullish channel and 1.4250 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario remains strong. The bias is bullish in nearest term retesting 1.4518 key resistance area. Note that we need a clear break above 1.4518 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4700 – 1.4800 region. Below 1.4518, I think price is still in consolidation phase. Immediate support at 1.4350. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4300 – 1.4250 support area.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday after unable to stay consistently below the bullish channel and 1.4250 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario remains strong. The bias is bullish in nearest term retesting 1.4518 key resistance area. Note that we need a clear break above 1.4518 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4700 – 1.4800 region. Below 1.4518, I think price is still in consolidation phase. Immediate support at 1.4350. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4300 – 1.4250 support area.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.6337 and now slip above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400/20 key resistance area. Immediate support at 1.6300. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6220 support area. A quick look at daily chart reveals that price has been moving in a sideways condition between 1.6400 – 1.5950 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.6337 and now slip above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400/20 key resistance area. Immediate support at 1.6300. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6220 support area. A quick look at daily chart reveals that price has been moving in a sideways condition between 1.6400 – 1.5950 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 0.9000 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. There are no changes in my daily outlook, where the major scenario remains strongly bearish but price is still in a consolidation phase as bearish seems exhausted. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 0.8950. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 0.8900 key support area. A clear break below 0.8900 could end the consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario targeting 0.8850/00 even lower. On the upside, a clear break above 0.9000 could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9055 – 0.9130 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 0.9000 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. There are no changes in my daily outlook, where the major scenario remains strongly bearish but price is still in a consolidation phase as bearish seems exhausted. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 0.8950. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 0.8900 key support area. A clear break below 0.8900 could end the consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario targeting 0.8850/00 even lower. On the upside, a clear break above 0.9000 could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9055 – 0.9130 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday and hit 83.09 earlier today in Asian session. Overall price is still in a bearish correction phase and need a clear break above 84.70 to continue the bullish scenario after the intervention, but my intraday bias is now bullish testing 83.77 area. After broke below the descending triangle, the downside pressure was limited and price moved in another symmetrical triangle which is now has been broken to the upside suggests more bullish intraday bias. Immediate support at 82.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish correction remains strong still testing 82.00 key support area.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday and hit 83.09 earlier today in Asian session. Overall price is still in a bearish correction phase and need a clear break above 84.70 to continue the bullish scenario after the intervention, but my intraday bias is now bullish testing 83.77 area. After broke below the descending triangle, the downside pressure was limited and price moved in another symmetrical triangle which is now has been broken to the upside suggests more bullish intraday bias. Immediate support at 82.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish correction remains strong still testing 82.00 key support area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue it bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break below 116.00 key support area and now struggling around 119.30 as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the bullish scenario which started since the intervention remains intact especially if price able to make a clear break above 119.30 and the trend line resistance (white) testing 121.40. However note that as long as price stays below 123.31 we are still in consolidation phase. Immediate support at 118.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish correction phase remains strong, still testing 116.00 key support area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue it bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break below 116.00 key support area and now struggling around 119.30 as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the bullish scenario which started since the intervention remains intact especially if price able to make a clear break above 119.30 and the trend line resistance (white) testing 121.40. However note that as long as price stays below 123.31 we are still in consolidation phase. Immediate support at 118.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish correction phase remains strong, still testing 116.00 key support area.