تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday and slipped back above 135.00 as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the bullish scenario which started since the intervention remains intact, but as long as price stays below 139.67 we are still in consolidation phase and intraday movement can be tricky. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 137.00. Immediate support at 135.00. Another move back below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but could reopen the door for another downside attempt testing 132.50.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday and slipped back above 135.00 as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the bullish scenario which started since the intervention remains intact, but as long as price stays below 139.67 we are still in consolidation phase and intraday movement can be tricky. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 137.00. Immediate support at 135.00. Another move back below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but could reopen the door for another downside attempt testing 132.50.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday and hit 1.0597 earlier today in Asian session. My rising wedge scenario is no longer valid. On the other hand, as you can see on my h4 chart below, we have an ascending triangle suggests a bullish continuation scenario testing new all time high projection around 1.0700. Immediate support at 1.0530. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall this pair is in a strong bullish phase.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday and hit 1.0597 earlier today in Asian session. My rising wedge scenario is no longer valid. On the other hand, as you can see on my h4 chart below, we have an ascending triangle suggests a bullish continuation scenario testing new all time high projection around 1.0700. Immediate support at 1.0530. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall this pair is in a strong bullish phase.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's strong rebound from 1.4157 kept itself inside near term rising channel and the break of 1.4363 minor resistance retains bullish outlook. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4519 and break will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4038) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's strong rebound from 1.4157 kept itself inside near term rising channel and the break of 1.4363 minor resistance retains bullish outlook. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4519 and break will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4038) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.6166 extends further to as high as 1.6379 today so far. As noted before, break of 1.6382 resistance will suggest that whole rise from 1.5935 is resuming. In such case, further rally should be seen through 1.6426 support towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, note that break of 1.6166 will will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.6166 extends further to as high as 1.6379 today so far. As noted before, break of 1.6382 resistance will suggest that whole rise from 1.5935 is resuming. In such case, further rally should be seen through 1.6426 support towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, note that break of 1.6166 will will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8895 might still be in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Above 0.9006 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9176) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8895 might still be in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Above 0.9006 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9176) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises to new record high of 1.0606 today and the break of 1.0581 confirms resumption of recent rally. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, break of 1.0442 support will indicate that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.0235).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises to new record high of 1.0606 today and the break of 1.0581 confirms resumption of recent rally. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, break of 1.0442 support will indicate that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.0235).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dips lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9525 support Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9582 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations first. But even in case of another recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dips lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9525 support Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9582 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations first. But even in case of another recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral. As noted before, with 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral. As noted before, with 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 119.25 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 123.31 is finished at 116.46, as being supported above 115.96 support. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. After all, outlook remains bullish as long as 115.96 support holds. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 115.96 will turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 119.25 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 123.31 is finished at 116.46, as being supported above 115.96 support. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. After all, outlook remains bullish as long as 115.96 support holds. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 115.96 will turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

With 132.96 resistance turned support intact, bullish outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and rise from 122.40 is expected to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

With 132.96 resistance turned support intact, bullish outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and rise from 122.40 is expected to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.