تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8807 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 0.8922 has completed at 0.8739 already. Intraday bias is back to the upside for 0.8922 and then 0.8940 resistance. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. Note that outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) holds and we'd expect recent rise to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8686) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8807 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 0.8922 has completed at 0.8739 already. Intraday bias is back to the upside for 0.8922 and then 0.8940 resistance. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. Note that outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) holds and we'd expect recent rise to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8686) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF drew strong support from 1.2736 and rebounded. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment but with 1.2948 minor resistance intact, the near term bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, consolidation from 1.2401 should have finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Below 1.2728 will affirm this view and should push EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low to resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2948 will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF drew strong support from 1.2736 and rebounded. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment but with 1.2948 minor resistance intact, the near term bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, consolidation from 1.2401 should have finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Below 1.2728 will affirm this view and should push EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low to resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2948 will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and current up trend is expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4412 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and current up trend is expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4412 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6382 indicates that consolidation from 1.6462 is completed at 1.6166 already and rise from 1.5935 is resuming. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6308 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish view and turn outlook neutral instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6382 indicates that consolidation from 1.6462 is completed at 1.6166 already and rise from 1.5935 is resuming. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6308 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish view and turn outlook neutral instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.8895 support indicates that recent decline has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.9006 resistance will bring another recovery. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9176) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.8895 support indicates that recent decline has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.9006 resistance will bring another recovery. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9176) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally extends further to new record high of 1.0690 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, below 1.0596 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0388 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally extends further to new record high of 1.0690 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, below 1.0596 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0388 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above 1.4518 and hit 1.4581 earlier today in Asian session. Just like previous breakouts (see h4 chart below), the current strong breakout above 1.4518 could continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4700 – 1.4800. The bias remains bullish in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.4518. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4480/50 support area but the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above 1.4518 and hit 1.4581 earlier today in Asian session. Just like previous breakouts (see h4 chart below), the current strong breakout above 1.4518 could continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4700 – 1.4800. The bias remains bullish in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.4518. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4480/50 support area but the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after broke above the bearish channel and hit 1.6446 earlier today in Asian session. The breakout above the bearish channel (which also can be seen as a bullish flag from another perspective) and the upper line of the range area gives us a bullish continuation scenario at least testing 1.6600 even 1.7000 in longer term outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6500. Immediate support at 1.6400. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6350 but overall I think the pressure remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after broke above the bearish channel and hit 1.6446 earlier today in Asian session. The breakout above the bearish channel (which also can be seen as a bullish flag from another perspective) and the upper line of the range area gives us a bullish continuation scenario at least testing 1.6600 even 1.7000 in longer term outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6500. Immediate support at 1.6400. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6350 but overall I think the pressure remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below the range area and hit 0.8853 earlier today in Asian session. This fact could end the consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario at least targeting 0.8800 – 0.8750 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8900. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8950 but overall I think the pressure remains strongly to the downside.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below the range area and hit 0.8853 earlier today in Asian session. This fact could end the consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario at least targeting 0.8800 – 0.8750 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8900. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8950 but overall I think the pressure remains strongly to the downside.