تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday and now testing 82.00 support area which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 to 85.51. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear break below 82.00 testing 80.85 (50% Fibo). However, note that a strong Yen appreciation could create speculation about another potential intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 82.50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 83.00.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday and now testing 82.00 support area which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 to 85.51. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear break below 82.00 testing 80.85 (50% Fibo). However, note that a strong Yen appreciation could create speculation about another potential intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 82.50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 83.00.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 120.38 but still struggling around the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 121.40 but need a clear break above 120.38 to continue the bullish pressure. CCI is moving up above zero level but still unable to move above 100 line suggests potential upside pressure but need a movement above 100 line to find good and strong bullish momentum. Immediate support at 119.30. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 118.72 (yesterday’s low).

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 120.38 but still struggling around the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 121.40 but need a clear break above 120.38 to continue the bullish pressure. CCI is moving up above zero level but still unable to move above 100 line suggests potential upside pressure but need a movement above 100 line to find good and strong bullish momentum. Immediate support at 119.30. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 118.72 (yesterday’s low).

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart and now still struggling around 135.00 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. CCI is moving down below zero level on daily chart suggests more bearish intraday bias but need a movement below -100 to continue the bearish pressure testing 132.50. Immediate support to be tested is around 133.75/50. A clear break below that area would trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.50 even lower. The overall technical bias remains to the downside but a strong Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 135.80. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 137.00 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart and now still struggling around 135.00 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. CCI is moving down below zero level on daily chart suggests more bearish intraday bias but need a movement below -100 to continue the bearish pressure testing 132.50. Immediate support to be tested is around 133.75/50. A clear break below that area would trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.50 even lower. The overall technical bias remains to the downside but a strong Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 135.80. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 137.00 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after a strong break out above 1.0581 and hit another new historical high at 1.0770 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0850 – 1.0900 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0670. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0600 but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after a strong break out above 1.0581 and hit another new historical high at 1.0770 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0850 – 1.0900 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0670. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0600 but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD reaches as high as 1.4627 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4484 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD reaches as high as 1.4627 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4484 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.6484 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6384 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.6166 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.6484 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6384 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.6166 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's decline is still in progress and reaches as low as 0.8841 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812. Break will target 100% projection at 0.8486. On the upside, break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's decline is still in progress and reaches as low as 0.8841 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812. Break will target 100% projection at 0.8486. On the upside, break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches new record high of 1.0770 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, below 1.0674 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0388 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches new record high of 1.0770 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, below 1.0674 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0388 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9525 support confirms resumption of recent down trend. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9556 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 0.9720 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9525 support confirms resumption of recent down trend. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9556 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 0.9720 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extends further to as low as 81.87 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) will argue that whole rebound from 76.40 is already completed at 85.51 and deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88. On the upside, above 83.09 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 85.51 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, however, break of 80.50 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 76.40 low instead.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extends further to as low as 81.87 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) will argue that whole rebound from 76.40 is already completed at 85.51 and deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88. On the upside, above 83.09 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 85.51 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, however, break of 80.50 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 76.40 low instead.