تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for 0.8922 resistance. Break will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. Note that outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) holds and we'd expect recent rise to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8686) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for 0.8922 resistance. Break will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. Note that outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) holds and we'd expect recent rise to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8686) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

The slightly stronger than expected recovery from 1.2728 dampens the immediate bearish view and mixes out near term outlook. We'll stay neutral first. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are consolidations in the larger down trend only. Below 1.2728 will revive the case that such consolidation has completed at 1.3234 already and target a new low below 1.2401.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

The slightly stronger than expected recovery from 1.2728 dampens the immediate bearish view and mixes out near term outlook. We'll stay neutral first. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are consolidations in the larger down trend only. Below 1.2728 will revive the case that such consolidation has completed at 1.3234 already and target a new low below 1.2401.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 132.96 resistance turned support intact, bullish outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and rise from 122.40 is expected to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 132.96 resistance turned support intact, bullish outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and rise from 122.40 is expected to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, EUR/JPY's pull back might have completed at 116.46 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. After all, outlook remains bullish as long as 115.96 support holds. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 115.96 will turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, EUR/JPY's pull back might have completed at 116.46 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. After all, outlook remains bullish as long as 115.96 support holds. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 115.96 will turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

With 1.4484 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4484 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

With 1.4484 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4484 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6598 so far today and meet mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next. On the downside, below 1.6482 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6598 so far today and meet mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next. On the downside, below 1.6482 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8780 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline should now target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8851 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8780 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline should now target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8851 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 81.61 so far today and the break of 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) argue that whole rebound from 76.40 is already finished. Intraday bias remains on the downside and deeper decline should be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88. On the upside, above 83.09 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, the deeper then expected fall from 85.51 dampens the view that USD/JPY has bottomed out at 76.40 in the long term. Also, considering that USD/JPY is still limited by a falling 55 weeks EMA and the long term falling trend line, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. A break of mentioned 79.88 fibonacci level will bring a test on 76.40 low first.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 81.61 so far today and the break of 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) argue that whole rebound from 76.40 is already finished. Intraday bias remains on the downside and deeper decline should be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88. On the upside, above 83.09 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, the deeper then expected fall from 85.51 dampens the view that USD/JPY has bottomed out at 76.40 in the long term. Also, considering that USD/JPY is still limited by a falling 55 weeks EMA and the long term falling trend line, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. A break of mentioned 79.88 fibonacci level will bring a test on 76.40 low first.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4647 but closed significantly lower at 1.4558, made a shooting star candle stick formation as you can see on my daily chart below, suggests potential bearish pullback especially if price breaks below 1.4518 support area (former resistance) testing 1.4400 even lower to the lower line of the bullish channel. On the upside, we need a clear movement back above 1.4581 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.4647 even higher. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4647 but closed significantly lower at 1.4558, made a shooting star candle stick formation as you can see on my daily chart below, suggests potential bearish pullback especially if price breaks below 1.4518 support area (former resistance) testing 1.4400 even lower to the lower line of the bullish channel. On the upside, we need a clear movement back above 1.4581 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.4647 even higher. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6598 but closed lower at 1.6518. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a context of a strong bullish scenario after the break above the bullish flag and range area as you can see on my h4 chart below at least testing 1.6700 area. On the downside, immediate support at 1.6470. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish but only a movement back below 1.6400 support area can be a threat to the current bullish technical outlook. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6598 but closed lower at 1.6518. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a context of a strong bullish scenario after the break above the bullish flag and range area as you can see on my h4 chart below at least testing 1.6700 area. On the downside, immediate support at 1.6470. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish but only a movement back below 1.6400 support area can be a threat to the current bullish technical outlook. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.