تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dropped to as low as 1.2728 but recovered since then. The development dampened the immediate bearish view and we'll stay neutral first. On the upside above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress. On the downside, below 1.2728 will resume fall from 1.3234 and affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished t 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dropped to as low as 1.2728 but recovered since then. The development dampened the immediate bearish view and we'll stay neutral first. On the upside above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress. On the downside, below 1.2728 will resume fall from 1.3234 and affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished t 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 was contained at 116.46, above mentioned 115.96 support and rebounded. Such pull back is likely finished and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for a retest on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 115.96 support holds but sustained break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline through 113.54 support.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 was contained at 116.46, above mentioned 115.96 support and rebounded. Such pull back is likely finished and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for a retest on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 115.96 support holds but sustained break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline through 113.54 support.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY drew support from mentioned 132.96, 38.2% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99, as well as 55 days EMA and turned sideway. With 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY drew support from mentioned 132.96, 38.2% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99, as well as 55 days EMA and turned sideway. With 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday in EUR/USD remains neutral and some consolidations could be seen below 1.4647 temporary top. But downside of retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4647 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday in EUR/USD remains neutral and some consolidations could be seen below 1.4647 temporary top. But downside of retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4647 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidations from 1.6598 might extend further. But retreat is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6403) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidations from 1.6598 might extend further. But retreat is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6403) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's fall is resuming and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's fall is resuming and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.0773 first. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0627) but downside should be contained above 1.0388 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0773 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.8704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.0773 first. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0627) but downside should be contained above 1.0388 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0773 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.8704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9453. But still, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9664) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9453. But still, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9664) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and current decline from 85.51 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and current decline from 85.51 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8713 support intact, we're treating price actions from 0.8922 as consolidation in the larger rally only. Intraday bias remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Break of 0.8922 will indicate rise resumption and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, note that break of 0.8713 support will indicate that EUR/GBP has possibly formed a head and shoulder top pattern and the near term trend has resumed. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8671 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8713 support intact, we're treating price actions from 0.8922 as consolidation in the larger rally only. Intraday bias remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Break of 0.8922 will indicate rise resumption and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, note that break of 0.8713 support will indicate that EUR/GBP has possibly formed a head and shoulder top pattern and the near term trend has resumed. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8671 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.