تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, EUR/CHF's recovery might have completed at 1.2971 after failing to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2728 support. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, EUR/CHF's recovery might have completed at 1.2971 after failing to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2728 support. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

WIth 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

WIth 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidations from 1.6598 might extend further. But retreat is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6403) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidations from 1.6598 might extend further. But retreat is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6403) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's retreat was rather brief and the break of 1.4647 resistance suggests that recent rally is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's retreat was rather brief and the break of 1.4647 resistance suggests that recent rally is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside with 0.8877 minor resistance intact and current decline should now target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside with 0.8877 minor resistance intact and current decline should now target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 82.41 minor resistance intact and current decline from 85.51 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 82.41 minor resistance intact and current decline from 85.51 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above 1.4647 and hit 1.4709 earlier today I Asian session. This strong breakout after sideways movement since Easter could continue the major bullish scenario targeting 1.4800 even 1.5000 region. Immediate support at 1.4647. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4600 – 1.4575 support area but I think overall the pressure remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above 1.4647 and hit 1.4709 earlier today I Asian session. This strong breakout after sideways movement since Easter could continue the major bullish scenario targeting 1.4800 even 1.5000 region. Immediate support at 1.4647. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4600 – 1.4575 support area but I think overall the pressure remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I think the major scenario remains bullish after the breakout above 1.6400. On h4 chart below we have a bullish flag formation suggests a bullish scenario especially if price breaks above the flag and 1.6550 targeting 1.6700. On the downside, only a clear break back below 1.6400 could diminish the current strong bullish outlook.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I think the major scenario remains bullish after the breakout above 1.6400. On h4 chart below we have a bullish flag formation suggests a bullish scenario especially if price breaks above the flag and 1.6550 targeting 1.6700. On the downside, only a clear break back below 1.6400 could diminish the current strong bullish outlook.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, broke below 0.8779 and bottomed at 0.8668. The hammer candle stick formation has failed and price may continue its strong bearish scenario from here targeting 0.8600. Immediate resistance at 0.8779 (former support). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, broke below 0.8779 and bottomed at 0.8668. The hammer candle stick formation has failed and price may continue its strong bearish scenario from here targeting 0.8600. Immediate resistance at 0.8779 (former support). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bearish intraday bias yesterday, bottomed at 81.25 and closed at 81.37. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 80.85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51) before testing 79.80 (61.8%% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51). Immediate resistance remains around 82.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 82.50 but overall we are still in a bearish phase. CCI remains in negative territory suggest further downside pressure is potential.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bearish intraday bias yesterday, bottomed at 81.25 and closed at 81.37. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 80.85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51) before testing 79.80 (61.8%% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51). Immediate resistance remains around 82.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 82.50 but overall we are still in a bearish phase. CCI remains in negative territory suggest further downside pressure is potential.