تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break below 118.40 support area. From another perspective as you can see on my h1 chart below price is moving in a range area of 120.38 – 118.40 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 120.38 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 121.40 while a clear break below 118.40 could continue the current bearish phase testing 117.00 even 116.00.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break below 118.40 support area. From another perspective as you can see on my h1 chart below price is moving in a range area of 120.38 – 118.40 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 120.38 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 121.40 while a clear break below 118.40 could continue the current bearish phase testing 117.00 even 116.00.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves below 135.00 the intraday bearish bias remains more to the downside still targeting 133.75 support area in nearest term. On the upside, a clear break above 135.00 could trigger further upside pressure testing 135.90 area

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves below 135.00 the intraday bearish bias remains more to the downside still targeting 133.75 support area in nearest term. On the upside, a clear break above 135.00 could trigger further upside pressure testing 135.90 area

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continue its bullish momentum yesterday, clearly broken above 1.0770 and hit 1.0851 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0900 even 1.1000 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0810 followed by 1.0780. A clear break below 1.0780 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continue its bullish momentum yesterday, clearly broken above 1.0770 and hit 1.0851 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0900 even 1.1000 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0810 followed by 1.0780. A clear break below 1.0780 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rise should extend further towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rise should extend further towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.6598 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we'd still expect retreat to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6419) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. Though, sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA will turn focus back to 1.6166 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.6598 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we'd still expect retreat to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6419) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. Though, sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA will turn focus back to 1.6166 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8670 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8670 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.0850 so far today, inch below mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0675 support holds and sustained trading above 1.0857 will target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, though, below 1.0675 will indicate that a short term top is formed after hitting a projection target and should bring pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.0850 so far today, inch below mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0675 support holds and sustained trading above 1.0857 will target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, though, below 1.0675 will indicate that a short term top is formed after hitting a projection target and should bring pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9453. But still, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9649) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9453. But still, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9649) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

With 82.41 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and current decline from 85.51 could extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

With 82.41 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and current decline from 85.51 could extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.