تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY continues to struggle around 4 hours 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 120.37 minor resistance will indicate that rebound from 116.46 has resumed. Intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for 123.31 and then 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY continues to struggle around 4 hours 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 120.37 minor resistance will indicate that rebound from 116.46 has resumed. Intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for 123.31 and then 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8878 minor resistance flips bias back to the upside for 0.8922. Break there will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. In any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later even though consolidations from 0.8922 might extend further.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8878 minor resistance flips bias back to the upside for 0.8922. Break there will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. In any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later even though consolidations from 0.8922 might extend further.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.2971 was contained above 1.2728 and recovers. Consolidation from 1.2728 might still be in progress and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. With 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.2971 was contained above 1.2728 and recovers. Consolidation from 1.2728 might still be in progress and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. With 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD reaches as high as 1.4711 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD reaches as high as 1.4711 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's strong rebound today suggests that consolidations from 1.6598 might have completed at 1.6431 already, ahead of 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside and break of 1.6598 will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.6431 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper decline towards 1.6166 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's strong rebound today suggests that consolidations from 1.6598 might have completed at 1.6431 already, ahead of 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside and break of 1.6598 will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.6431 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper decline towards 1.6166 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8807 minor resistance intact, current decline in USD/CHF is still expected to continue through 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8807 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8807 minor resistance intact, current decline in USD/CHF is still expected to continue through 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8807 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

With 82.41 minor resistance intact, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 could still extend further and below 81.26 will target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

With 82.41 minor resistance intact, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 could still extend further and below 81.26 will target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 135.93 resistance suggests that rebound form 132.98 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 135.93 resistance suggests that rebound form 132.98 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 120.37 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 116.46 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for resting 123.31 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 120.37 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 116.46 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for resting 123.31 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but again, the previous broken resistance 1.4647 area became a good support before a strong bullish momentum which brought Euro hit 1.4881 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4900 – 1.5000 this week. Immediate support at 1.4790. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but again, the previous broken resistance 1.4647 area became a good support before a strong bullish momentum which brought Euro hit 1.4881 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4900 – 1.5000 this week. Immediate support at 1.4790. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the major scenario remains strongly bullish.