تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6744 so far and breaks mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.6431 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6744 so far and breaks mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.6431 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF made a temporary low at 0.8670 and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment and come consolidations could be seen. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF made a temporary low at 0.8670 and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment and come consolidations could be seen. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rises further to 137.01 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for further rises towards 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rises further to 137.01 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for further rises towards 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rebounds to as high as 121.82 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside with 120.37 minor support intact. Current rise might still extend further to 123.31 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rebounds to as high as 121.82 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside with 120.37 minor support intact. Current rise might still extend further to 123.31 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rises to 0.8922 but failed to break through this resistance and retreats. Nevertheless, with 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for further rise. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will turn flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rises to 0.8922 but failed to break through this resistance and retreats. Nevertheless, with 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for further rise. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will turn flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2728 continues. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2728 continues. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4711 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4711 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment and further all should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.6618 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.6431 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment and further all should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.6618 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.6431 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.8670 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.8670 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.