تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, broke below the triangle formation as you can see on my h1 chart below suggests a bearish technical bias at least targeting 112.50 in nearest term before testing 110.80 in longer term as the upside scenario might have failed now after the failure to maintain position above 114.00. Immediate resistance at 113.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 114.00 but only a clear break above 114.68 would continue the bullish scenario targeting 116.35. Note that the price movement seems to be remains under the influence of Tsunami impact and nuclear crisis in Japan. Although risk aversion sentiment will likely to dominate and keep support broad Yen strength, this kind of sentiment can change quickly anytime.
http://static.fxinstructor.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/eurjpyh11-300x185.jpg (http://static.fxinstructor.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/eurjpyh11.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 129.17 and closed at 128.84. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 129.17 targeting 127.50 even 125.50 in longer term. Immediate resistance at 131.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 132.50 which could be a threat to the bearish scenario. Note that the price movement seems to be remains under the influence of Tsunami impact and nuclear crisis in Japan. Although risk aversion sentiment will likely to dominate and keep support broad Yen strength, this kind of sentiment can change quickly anytime. http://static.fxinstructor.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/gbpjpydaily2-300x184.jpg (http://static.fxinstructor.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/gbpjpydaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, clearly broken below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my daily chart below, confirms the bearish correction/reversal scenario after hit all time high at 1.0256. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that we probably have a good support around 0.9800 and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.9540. Immediate resistance at 0.9965. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0100 but only a clear break above 1.0100 could cancel the current bearish scenario and open the door for another bullish attempt aiming for new all time highs.
http://static.fxinstructor.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/audusddaily10-300x185.jpg (http://static.fxinstructor.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/audusddaily10.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD


With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.4247 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4048) but downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside with 1.6291 minor support intact. Current rally should be targeting 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next. On the downside, below 1.6291 minor support will indicate that a temporary top is formed and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained well above 1.5976 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF


Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8921 is still in progress. In case of another recovery, we'd expect upside limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD


Another fall remains mildly in favor in USD/CAD with 0.9862 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 0.9666 has completed at 0.9972 already and 0.9666 is not the bottom yet. Further break of 0.9666 will resume recent down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9862 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD
No change in AUD/USD's outlook. AUD/USD is possibly just in sideway consolidations from 1.0181, in form of triangle pattern. That is, recent uptrend is not over yet. Some choppy sideway trading could be seen in near term first. Break of 1.0200 resistance will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to revive the bearish reversal case that AUD/USD has topped out at 1.0254 and target 0.9536 and below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110323a2.gif
[/URL]
[URL="http://www.actionforex.com/general-information/forex-newsletters/forex-newsletter-200507301487/"] (http://www.actionforex.com/general-information/forex-newsletters/forex-newsletter-200507301487/)

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 115.53 an intraday bias is turned neutral. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 111.28 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP
As noted before, a temporary top is at least in place at 0.8750 after EUR/GBP hit medium term trend line resistance. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 0.8533 support. Break will indicate that whole rise from 0.8284 has likely finished and should bring deeper fall towards 0.8284/8354 support zone. On the upside, note again that sustained trading above medium term fall trend line and 0.8760 will have medium term bullish implication and should bring further rise towards 0.8940 resistance.

In the bigger picture, firstly, fall from 0.9799 is treated as correction to the larger up trend and the question is whether such correction is finished. At this point, EUR/GBP is still limited by medium term falling trend line and thus, there is no confirmation of completion of the correction yet. Another low below 0.8067 could still be seen. Even in that case, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone. Meanwhile, break of 0.8940 will revive the case that correction from 0.9799 is already completed and will turn outlook bullish for a new high above 0.9799.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.2886 in EUR/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral. Though, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.2676 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is possibly the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.2886 will bring another rise to 1.3038 or possibly further to 1.3203 resistance. Though, below 1.2676 will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY


At this point, further rise remains mildly in favor in GBP/JPY with 130.44 minor support intact. Though, focus will remain on 135.48 resistance level. As long as 135.48 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first. Below 130.44 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 122.40 and below.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110323a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110323a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD




Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.4247 continues. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD


No change in AUD/USD's outlook. AUD/USD is possibly just in sideway consolidations from 1.0181, in form of triangle pattern. That is, recent uptrend is not over yet. Some choppy sideway trading could be seen in near term first. Break of 1.0200 resistance will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to revive the bearish reversal case that AUD/USD has topped out at 1.0254 and target 0.9536 and below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD



Some consolidations could be seen above 0.9745 temporary low but after all, another fall is still in favor with 0.9862 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 0.9666 has completed at 0.9972 already and 0.9666 is not the bottom yet. Below 0.9745 will target 0.9666 and break will resume recent down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. However, above 0.9862 will mix up the near term outlook again.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP




No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. At this moment, with 4 hours MACD staying negative, we'd continue to favor deeper fall. Break of 0.8533 support will indicate that whole rise from 0.8284 has likely finished after hitting medium term trend line resistance. In such case, EUR/GBP should target 0.8284/8354 support zone. On the upside, note again that sustained trading above medium term fall trend line and 0.8760 will have medium term bullish implication and should bring further rise towards 0.8940 resistance.

In the bigger picture, firstly, fall from 0.9799 is treated as correction to the larger up trend and the question is whether such correction is finished. At this point, EUR/GBP is still limited by medium term falling trend line and thus, there is no confirmation of completion of the correction yet. Another low below 0.8067 could still be seen. Even in that case, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone. Meanwhile, break of 0.8940 will revive the case that correction from 0.9799 is already completed and will turn outlook bullish for a new high above 0.9799.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF






Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen below 1.2886 temporary top first. Though, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.2676 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is possibly the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.2886 will bring another rise to 1.3038 or possibly further to 1.3203 resistance. Though, below 1.2676 will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and retreat from 1.6400 could extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6214) and below. But we'd stay bullish as long as 1.5976 support holds and expect rise from 1.5343 to resume later. Break of 1.6400 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF


USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8921 continues today and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside up the consolidation is still expected to be limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8977 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY


Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY




With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 132.96 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Focus will remain on 135.48 resistance level. As long as 135.48 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first. Below 130.44 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 122.40 and below.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY




Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment as consolidations below 115.53 temporary top continues. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110324a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110324a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in tight range below 1.4247 temporary top. Consolidations could continue further but even in case of deeper retreat, downside downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110325a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With a break of 130.44 minor support, intraday bias in GBP/JPY is flipped back to the downside for 127.53 first. Break will target a test on 122.40 low. On the upside, though, above 132.96 will bring another rise instead. However, as long as 135.48 resistance holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110325a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY continues to stay above 113.52 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110325a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's sharp retreat from 1.6400 could extend further but after all, we'd stay bullish as long as 1.5976 support holds and expect rise from 1.5343 to resume later. Above 1.6265 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.6400 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations form 0.8921 continue. With 0.8977 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But upside is expected to be limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8977 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110325a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Ass noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's break of 1.0200 resistance suggests that recent sideway consolidations might be finished and the pair is possibly resuming medium term up trend. Intraday bias is back on the upside and break of 1.0254 will target upper channel resistance at 1.0382 next. On the downside, below 1.0112 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9704 support holds and expect up trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking at the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9745 suggests that whole fall from 0.9972 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9666. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9841 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110325a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110325a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD dips to 1.4020 earlier today as consolidation from 1.4247 continues. Intraday bias remains neutral and more corrective trading could be seen, with risk of deeper fall. But after all, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops further to as low 1.5935 today so far and the break of 1.5976 support indicates that confirms that rise from 1.5343 is finished at 1.6400 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and deeper decline should be seen towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5788). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6020 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.6400 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110328a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for further rebound. Rise from 0.8921 should be correcting fall from 0.9774 and is targeting 55 days EMA (now at 0.9362) and above. On the downside, below 0.9089 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110328a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises further to new record high of 1.3135 today and remains firm. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should extend further to upper channel resistance at 1.0386 next. On the downside below 1.0185 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 0.9704 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110328a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Above 81.95 will bring another rise to extend rebound from 76.40. However, the broader outlook remains unchanged. With 84.49 key resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal and hence, we'd still mildly favor an eventual downside break out. Below 80.50 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and target 78.25 and below.

In the bigger picture, multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY should still be in progress and in any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8R projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

As discussed before, rebound from 122.40 might have made a top at 132.96 and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 127.53 support first. Break there will target a retest on 122.40 low. On the upside, above 132.96 will flip bias back to the upside for another rise. But overall, we'll stay bearish as long as 135.48 resistance holds and expect a break of 122.40 eventually.
In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110328a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY remains bounded in tight range below 115.53 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, with 115.96 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110328a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's rally extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.2736 minor support intact. As discussed before, consolidations from 1.2401 is still in progress with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Current rebound should extend to 1.3038 resistance and then 1.3203. On the downside, though, below 1.2376 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110328a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP retreats mildly as the week starts and a temporary top is possibly in place at 0.8810 with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. Some consolidations might be seen below 0.8810 first. But downside is expected to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring another rise. ABove 0.8810 should target 0.8940 resistance first. Also, note that sustained break of 0.8653 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110328a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110328a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's recovery today pushed 4 hours MACD back above signal line and suggests that pull back from 1.4247 might be finished at 1.4020 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for a retest on 1.4247 first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is in place at 1.5935 in GBP/USD and bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen first. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.6140 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 1.5976 support suggests that rise from 1.5343 has completed at 1.6400 already. Below 1.5935 will target a test on medium term trend line support (now at 1.5793). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6140 will turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral. Below 0.9089 minor support will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first. Above 0.9233 will extend the correction from there towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9355) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. With 0.9841 resistance intact, another fall is still in favor. Below 0.9730 will bring retest of 0.9666 low first. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. However, break of 0.9841 resistance will in turn suggest that fall from 0.9972 is finished and will argue that rise from 0.9666 is possibly resuming for above 0.9972.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as it's staying in tight range below 81.95 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise could still be seen. However, with 84.49 key resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal and hence, we'd still mildly favor an eventual downside break out. Below 80.50 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and target 78.25 and below.

In the bigger picture, multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY should still be in progress and in any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8R projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Upside momentum is a bit unconvincing but intraday bias will stay on the upside as long as 0.8759 minor support holds. Current rally should extend towards 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8653 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Some sideway trading might be seen in EUR/CHF below 1.2980 temporary top but another rise is expected with 1.2736 support intact. . As discussed before, consolidations from 1.2401 is still in progress with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Current rebound should extend to 1.3038 resistance and then 1.3203. On the downside, though, below 1.2376 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

At this point, we'd still slightly favor further fall towards 127.53 support first. Break there will target a retest on 122.40 low. On the upside, above 132.96 will flip bias back to the upside for another rise. But overall, we'll stay bearish as long as 135.48 resistance holds and expect a break of 122.40 eventually.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY remains bounded in tight range below 115.53 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, with 115.96 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110329a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110329a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment as correction from 1.4247 might continue further. Below 1.4020 will bring another fall. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD is still bounded in tight range above 1.5935 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 1.6140 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 1.5976 support suggests that rise from 1.5343 has completed at 1.6400 already. Below 1.5935 will target a test on medium term trend line support (now at 1.5806). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6140 will turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9233 suggests that rebound from 0.8921 has resumed. Such rebound is treated as a correction to fall from 0.9774 and should be targeting 55 days EMA (now at 0.9345) and above. On the downside, below 0.9139 minor support will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally resumes after brief consolidation and reaches new record high of 1.0332 so far. Intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 1.0203 minor support holds and further rally should be seen towards upper channel resistance at 1.0392 next. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed, possibly with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9730 suggests that fall from 0.9972 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9666 support. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9826 resistance will in turn suggest that fall from 0.9972 is finished and will argue that rise from 0.9666 is possibly resuming for above 0.9972.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rally extends further to as high as 83.18 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. On the downside, below 82.36 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110330b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110330b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing for the moment, but we'd maintain near term bullish view in EUR/GBP as long as 0.8653 support holds. Current rally should continue towards 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's break of 1.2980 suggests that rebound from 1.2432 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3038 resistance first. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and break of 1.3038 should target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2887 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rebound from 103.17 and development in yen crosses elsewhere suggest that rise from 122.40 is not over. Above 132.96 resistance will bring rise resumption towards 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 130.17 will turn bias back to the downside for a test on 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110330a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110330a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment as correction from 1.4247 might continue further. Below 1.4020 will bring another fall. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110330b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110330b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.5935 continue with another recovery today. More corrective trading could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 1.6140 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 1.5976 support suggests that rise from 1.5343 has completed at 1.6400 already. Below 1.5935 will target a test on medium term trend line support (now at 1.5806). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6140 will turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110330b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110330b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.9139 minor support intact, USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8921 could still continue to correct fall from 0.9774. Such rebound might target 55 days EMA (now at 0.9345) and above. On the downside, below 0.9139 minor support will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110330b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110330b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dips further to as low as 0.9685 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9666 support. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110330b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110330b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rally extends further to as high as 83.18 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. On the downside, below 82.36 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110330b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110330b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD recovers further to as high as 1.4188 so far today but is still limited below 1.4247 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative trading could still be seen. Below 1.4020 will bring another fall. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6149 so far today and the break of 1.6140 minor resistance dampens the immediate bearish view. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for further rebound. But after all, break of 1.6400 high is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain neutral and we'd expect more consolidative trading. On the downside below 1.5935 will bring deeper fall towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5810).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still supported above 0.9139 minor support. Recovery from 0.8921 could still extend higher to 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above. Nevertheless, break of 0.9139 will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 1.0203 support intact, further rise is still expected in AUD/USD, towards upper channel resistance at 1.0392 next. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed, possibly with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 83.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidation might be seen first but break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Break of 132.96 resistance suggests that rebound from 122.40 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 130.17 will turn bias back to the downside for a test on 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 116.18 minor support intact. Current rise should now extend to 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 first. Break will affirm the bullish reversal case and target 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 will further affirm this case and target 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69).

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.8653 support intact, EUR/GBP's rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8835 will target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continues to lose some upside momentum but after all, with 1.2887 minor support intact, rebound from 1.2432 is expected to continue higher through 1.3038 resistance. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and break of 1.3038 should target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2887 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110331a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110331a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



EUR/USD jumps to as high as 1.4231 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.4247 resistance and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110331b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110331b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's sharp reversal after hitting 1.6140 minor resistance revives the original bearish view that fall from 1.6400 is not over. Break of 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5811). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110331b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110331b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9139 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 could have finished. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 0.8921 first. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110331b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110331b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 83.20 temporary top. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110331b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110331b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD faces some resistance ahead of 1.4247 and retreats and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110401a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110401a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110401a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110401a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8921 might have finished at 0.9273 already and another fall is mildly in favor to retest 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110401a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110401a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD loses some upside momentum as seen in mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But with 1.0203 minor support intact, stronger rise is still in favor towards upper channel resistance at 1.0396. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110401a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's rally resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 83.73 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 84.49 key resistance next. Break will target next medium term support turned resistance at 84.81. On the downside, below 82.56 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110401a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110401a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rise extends further to as high as 134.29 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 132.45 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will now remain cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110401a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rises further to as high as 118.65 so far today and met mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, below 116.72 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. The break of 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case and further rise should be seen towards 39.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69).

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[m.youssif]

While upside momentum in EUR/GBP is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of topping yet and further rise is still expected towards 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral again. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's rally extends further to as high as 1.3056 and breaks mentioned 1.3038 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and should now target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2931 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

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[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



USD/JPY's rally extends further in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. Break will indicate medium term reversal and should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. On the downside, below 83.19 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 80.50 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110401b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110401b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.4247 would extend further. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110401b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110401b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110401b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9273 resistant indicates that rebound from 0.8921 has resumed and intraday bias is back to the upside for 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above. On the downside, below 0.9126 support will suggest that rebound from 0.8921 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 0.8921 low and below.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110401b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110401b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook



EUR/USD was bounded in sideway consolidation between 1.4020 and 1.4247 last week. Late rally on Friday argues that recent up trend is possibly ready to resume this week. Break of 1.4247 will confirm and target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate that deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD was bounded in sideway trading above 1.5935 last week. Current development suggests that consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and would likely extend further. Above 1.6149 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and possibly above. However, in such case, we'd expect strong resistance near term 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5821).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's choppy recovery from 0.8921 extended further to as high as 0.9339 last week and touched 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out as long as 0.9126 minor support stronger resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9573) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD extended recent up trend and reached new record high of 1.0394 last week. AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of topping as long as 1.0203 support holds. Further rise could be seen to 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 next. On the downside, though ,below 1.0203 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 0.9625 last week and the strong break of 0.9666 support confirms medium term downtrend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9685 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose further to as high as 84.71 last week and the break of 84.49 key resistance suggests that a medium term bottom is at least in place at 76.40. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the bullish case and target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet). We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF jumped to as high as 1.3169 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP continued to climb to as high as 0.8852 last week. Upside momentum was a bit unconvincing. But still, initial bias remains on the upside this week with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose sharply to as high as 119.78 last week and the strong break of 115.96 resistance indicate that the medium term trend has revised. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 118.21 minor support suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral to bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third wave might be finished at 105.42 already. Sustained break of 139.21 resistance should pave the way to retest 169.96 high next.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 135.80 last week and the break of 135.48 resistance suggests that 122.40 is the medium term bottom that we've been waiting for. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 133.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rise is expected to 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6175 so far. Consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and could extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5837).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.9126 minor support intact, the choppy recovery from 0.8921 could extend further higher. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9575) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.42 minor support intact. Current rise from 76.40 is expected to extend towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD edges higher to 1.0415 today and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Though, upside momentum is a bit unconvincing with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 and a break of 1.0312 minor support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring deeper pull back, towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079). Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

USDCAD's drops further to as low as 0.9615 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current down trend is expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next. On the upside, above 0.9673 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the momentum and current rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 134.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 118.21 minor support intact and current rally should now target 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 118.21 minor support suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral to bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise remains in favor with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with 1.3037 minor support intact and further rise should be seen to 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/USD lost momentum after edging higher to 1.4267 and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral again. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.4020 support holds. Above 1.4267 will target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's recovery from 1.5935 could still extend further higher towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5841).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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[m.youssif]

With 0.9126 minor support intact, the choppy recovery from 0.8921 could extend further higher. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9571) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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[m.youssif]

Current development in AUD/USD suggests that a short term top is possibly in place at 1.0415, ahead of 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422, on mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0269) and possibly lower to 38.2% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0415 at 1.0143. But there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. And current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9673 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 0.9615 and turns intraday bias neutral. Some recovery might be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9717. But upside is expected to be limited well below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9615 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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[seragsamy]

كل التوفيق لك اخى محمد يوسف مجهود متواصل ورائع

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 135.17 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is in place and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 133.58). But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110405a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY lost some upside momentum but still intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with 119.14 minor support intact. Current rise from 106.57 should extend further towards 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 119.14 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is formed and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.17). But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110405a2.gif

[m.youssif]

A temporary top should be in place in EUR/GBP at 0.8852 and some consolidations could be seen below there. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8653 support holds. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110405a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110405a2.gif

[m.youssif]

A temporary top should be in place in EUR/CHF at 1.3184. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2996). But after all, near term outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as 1.2736 support holds. Current rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.3184 will bring another rise to 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3432).

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110405a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110405a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



GBP/USD rebounds further to as high as 1.6262 so far today and breaks mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 as expected. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rise. But we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the consolidation. Below 1.6091 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.5935 support and below. Though, sustained break of 1.6400 will confirm rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110405b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110405b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and some consolidation could be seen below 1.4267 minor support first. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.4020 support holds. Above 1.4267 will target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110405b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110405b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's corrective rise from 0.8921 is still in progress and could extend higher with 0.9126 minor support intact. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9567) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110405b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110405b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Even though upside momentum in USD/JPY is diminishing a bit, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with 83.42 minor support intact. Current rise from 76.40 is expected to extend towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110405b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110405b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally resumes and reaches as high as 1.4313 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4217 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4020 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. FUrther rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3427 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5935 extends further to as high as 1.6362 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.6400 resistance first. Note that acceleration of the current rebound argues that it might indeed be resuming whole rise from 1.5343. Break of 1.6400 will confirm the bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6275 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the momentum and with 0.9126 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9562) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is in place at 1.0415 in AUD/USD ahead of 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422, on mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. More consolidation could be seen with risk of deeper pull back. Below 1.0287 will bring another fall towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0415 at 1.0143. But there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. And current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9615 indicates that recent decline has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. Break will target 100% projection at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9692 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and will bring stronger recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9972 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 85.51 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

More consolidation could still be seen in EUR/GBP below 0.8852 near term top. But after all, outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF edge further higher to 1.3234 and touches 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3038 minor support holds. Rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and could extend to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 minor support will suggest that a short term top is possibly formed and flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2736 support will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rally extends further to as high as 121.95 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for mentioned 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. Break will target 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But strong support should be seen around 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.80) to contain downside and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rises further to as high as 139.56 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110406a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110406a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.4335 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4251 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4020 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. FUrther rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3427 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110406b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110406b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.6362 earlier today before retreating mildly. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.6214 minor support holds, for 1.6400 resistance. Note that acceleration of the current rebound argues that it might indeed be resuming whole rise from 1.5343. Break of 1.6400 will confirm the bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6214 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110406b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110406b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still holding above 0.9126 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another recovery cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9562) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110406b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110406b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.85 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110406b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110406b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD drops to as low as 0.9577 so far today and met mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and further fall should now be seen towards 100% projection at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9692 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110406b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110406b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish bias earlier today in Asian session, slipped above 1.4250 again. On h4 chart below we can see price seems ready to continue its bullish scenario after two weeks of consolidation in range area of 1.4250/81 – 1.4035. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.4281 targeting 1.4400 – 1.4500 this week. Immediate support at 1.4200. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4150 but unless price breaks below 1.4035 the major bullish scenario remains intact.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a strong bullish momentum yesterday, triggered by a better than expected UK Servioes PMI number and broke above 1.6300 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.6400. However note that actually from a daily chart outlook like I said yesterday, price still moves in a sideways condition. We need a clear break above 1.6400 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6500 – 1.6700 area. Immediate support at 1.6275. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6170/50 support area and keep us in a sideways outlook, still looking for a new direction.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdhourly-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdhourly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday and hit 85.51 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 85.90. On monthly chart below we can see that 85.90 is not only a key intraday resistance to be tested, but also a key resistance from a long term outlook where a hammer candle stick bullish reversal formation is formed after hit a new 15 year low at 76.21 last month. A clear break above 85.90 would be a further validation to the bullish reversal scenario at least targeting 95.00. Immediate support at 84.70. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpymonthly-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpymonthly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. As long as price still moves inside the bullish channel, price is still in a bullish correction phase still testing 0.9368, but we haven’t seen a clear momentum in the last seven days as easily seen on a daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I will stand aside from this pair for now. Immediate support at 0.9200 followed by 0.9130. A clear break below 0.9130 and violation to the bullish channel could end this bullish correction phase retesting 0.9000 – 0.8900 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh41-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh41.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday and hit 121.89 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 122.29 key resistance area after bounced strongly from a triple bottom formation as you can see on my weekly chart below. A clear break above 122.29 would trigger further bullish continuation testing May 2010 high at 125.44 and April 2010 high at 127.90. Immediate support at 121.20. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 120.70 but overall I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyweekly-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyweekly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday and hit 139.67 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 140.56. On weekly chart below we can see price is now struggling around a key resistance at 139.50 after made a strong breakout above 135.17. A consistent move above 139.50 would continue the bullish scenario which triggered by the intervention testing 145.95 from a longer term outlook. Immediate support at 138.90. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 138.00 – 137.77 support area but overall I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyweekly-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyweekly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but found a good intraday support around 1.0310 – 1.0270 and now testing 1.0370 resistance area. A clear break above 1.0370 would continue the bullish momentum testing 1.0400 – 1.0500. On the downside, a clear break below 1.0270 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves above 1.0200 the bullish scenario should remain strong.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh1-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh1.jpg)

[oudathothefa]

يعطيك الف الف عافية

يجزاك الله كل خير

[m.youssif]

يعطيك الف الف عافية

يجزاك الله كل خير

وجزاك مثله

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD finally made a breakout above the range area after two weeks of consolidation as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact should continue the major bullish scenario targeting 1.4400 – 1.4500 area this week. On the downside, immediate support at 1.4281/50. Another consistent move and daily close below that support level would lead us back to neutral zone, even could create a false breakout bearish scenario testing 1.4150 – 1.4035 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday after a strong bullish run on Tuesday. The bias is neutral both on short and medium term as price still trapped in range area of 1.6400 – 1.5950 as you can see on my daily chart below. A bearish pullback warning indicated by CCI bearish divergence. Immediate support at 1.6250. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.6170/80 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6335. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish retesting 1.6400 key resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday on broad US Dollar weakness, but found a good support right at the lower line of the bullish channel and 0.9130 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that we need a clear break below the bullish channel and 0.9130 to end the bullish correction scenario and continue the major bearish scenario at least testing 0.9000 – 0.8900. Immediate resistance at 0.9230. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bullish correction scenario remains strong testing 0.9368.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY still able to maintain its bullish intraday bias yesterday but still unable to make a break above 85.90 key resistance area and traded lower earlier today in Asian session hit 85.10. The bias is neutral in nearest term and some downside pullback could be seen today testing 84.71 support area. A clear break and daily close below 84.71 could trigger further bearish consolidation testing 84.15 but overall the major scenario remains strongly bullish for me. On the upside, a clear break above 85.51 would change the intraday bias back to bullish retesting 85.90. Above 85.90, 86.30/50 area would be the next nearest bullish target.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish bias yesterday, topped at 122.59 but corrected lower earlier today in Asian session hit 121.68. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall my technical outlook remains strongly bullish targeting 125.44 and 127.90. Immediate support at 121.68 (current low). A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 121.20 support area but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario for this pair. On the upside, a clear break above 122.59 would continue the bullish momentum and end the current bearish correction phase.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyweekly1-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyweekly1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday topped at 139.67 but corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 138.65. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 138.10 support area but note that the current bearish pressure should be seen as a normal correction after strong bullish run since the intervention and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. On my h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area between 139.67 – 138.10 indicates consolidation. A clear break above the range would continue the major bullish scenario testing 142.00 and 145.95.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued it bullish momentum yesterday after made a clear break above 1.0370 and hit another new all time high at 1.0481 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0500 – 1.0550 new all time high projection. Immediate support at 1.0419 (current low). A clear break below that area would lead us in neutral zone in nearest term and lead us to bearish consolidation phase testing 1.0370 (former resistance) but overall I think the bullish scenario should remain strong.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD retreats mildly after rising to 1.4348 but with 1.4251 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should still be seen to 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4251 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4020 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. FUrther rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3427 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at GBP/USD at 1.6362 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. We'd still favor another rise as long as 1.6175 support holds. Break of 1.6400 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, below 1.6175 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.5935 to continue to consolidation from 1.6400.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and with 0.9126 minor support intact, another rise cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9559) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and reached as high as 1.0479 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside and current rally could now be targeting 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866. On the downside, below 1.0287 support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back. But before that, we'll stay bullish as long as 1.0287 support holds even in case of retest.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. Break of the upper channel resistance also points to acceleration. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD recovers mildly after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. Some sideway consolidation might be seen but still, near term outlook remain bearish as long as 0.9692 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 0.9589 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.9353. Though, break of 0.9692 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Further rise is still expected in USD/JPY with 83.85 minor support intact and current rise should continue to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

A temporary top is in place at 1.3234 after touching 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some sideway consolidation could be seen. On the upside, above 1.3234 will bring another rise to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434) to extend the consolidation from 1.2401. On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's consolidation form 0.8852 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY reaches as high as 122.60 and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and sustained trading above 122.50 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (Now at 118.75) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside with 137.95 minor support intact. Current rise should be in progress to 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110407a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110407a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's break of 1.4251 minor support suggests that a temporary top is formed at 1.4348 and the pair would now retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4194). Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained above 1.4020 support and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4348 should target 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. however, break of 1.4020 will indicate that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen towards 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3427 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110407b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110407b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.6362 temporary top. Nevertheless, we'd still favor another rise as long as 1.6175 support holds. Break of 1.6400 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, below 1.6175 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.5935 to continue to consolidation from 1.6400.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110407b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110407b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and with 0.9126 minor support intact, another rise cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9559) and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9126 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110407b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110407b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY is staying in tight range today but still, another rise is expected with 83.85 minor support intact. Current rally should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110407b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110407b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY retreats mildly after hitting 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. But with 120.86 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise is still in favor. Sustained trading above 122.50 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 118.85) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110407b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110407b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday but had a bullish run earlier today in Asian session on broad US Dollar weakness and hit 1.6391. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400 resistance, which is the upper line of the current range area. A clear break above that area would trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6450 – 1.6500 in nearest term and a weekly close above 1.6400 would lead us to a bullish continuation outlook testing 1.6800 – 1.7000 in longer term. Immediate support at 1.6340/30. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6250 support area and keep us in sideways condition. Broad US Dollar weakness should support the Cable and I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdweeklychart-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdweeklychart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF finally break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below indicates the end of the bullish correction and seems ready to continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9000 is nearest term before testing 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9164 (current high). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9230 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily1-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 84.70 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 84.70 – 85.51 indicates consolidation after bullish run. The major bullish outlook remains strong. Yesterday’s bearish consolidation is absolutely normal and I believe an upside breakout from the range area is imminent to continue the upside scenario at least targeting 85.90 – 86.30/50 area. On the downside, only a clear break below 84.71 would pause the current strong bullish outlook testing 84.15 but overall the major bullish outlook should remain strong and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday bottomed at 120.74 but had a bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session slipped above 122.59. The bias is bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 122.59 to continue the bullish scenario testing 125.44 and 127.90. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 120.75 – 122.59 indicates consolidation after bullish run. I think the upside breakout is imminent. Immediate support at 122.00. A clear break below that area could lead us to another bearish consolidation retesting 120.75 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 138.10 but bounced to the upside and hit 139.63 earlier today in Asian session. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 139.67 – 138.10 indicates consolidation after bullish run. I believe upside breakout is imminent testing 142.00 and 145.95. Immediate support at 139.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 138.10 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh11-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh11.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, made another new all time high at 1.0537. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing new all time high projection around 1.0600 – 1.0650. Immediate support at 1.0480. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0445 but overall the bullish outlook remains strong and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily1-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, but found a good support at the upper line of the previous range area around 1.4250 as you can see on my h4 chart below and continue its bullish run earlier today in Asian session hit 1.4403. This fact gives us further validation to the bullish continuation scenario at least targeting 1.4450 – 1.4500. Immediate support at 1.4350. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only another consistent move below 1.4250 would halt the current strong bullish technical outlook.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally resumes by taking out 1.4348 after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. Break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4240 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for deeper retreat towards 1.4020 support.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rise from 1.5939 resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.6400 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that choppy recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises further to as high as 1.0532 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866. On the downside, below 1.0287 support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back. But before that, we'll stay bullish as long as 1.0287 support holds even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. Break of the upper channel resistance also points to acceleration. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside as recent decline resumes. Current fall should now target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9623 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation, possibly with recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9662) before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Further rise is still expected with 83.85 minor support intact and USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's still struggling in range below 1.3234. On the upside, above 1.3234 will bring another rise to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434) to extend the consolidation from 1.2401. On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8852 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rally resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 122.94 so far. Intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 120.74 minor support holds. Further rise should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.52) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rally resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.87 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110408a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110408a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook (http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-mid-day-outlook-20110408137414/)


GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6426 so far today and the break of 1.6400 resistance confirms that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110408b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110408b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 83.85 minor support intact, current rise in USD/JPY is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110408b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110408b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low. Break there will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110408b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110408b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD jumps further to as high as 1.4442 in early US session. The break of 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414 now paves the way to 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4348 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110408b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110408b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook



EUR/USD extended recent up trend and rose further to as high as 1.4486 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110409w2.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110409w3.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6400 resistance last week indicates that whole rise from 1.5343 and that from 1.4230 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5935 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110409w2.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110409w3.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's decline last week and break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for a test on 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110409w2.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110409w3.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's up trend continued last week and made new record high 1.0581. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should now be seen to 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110409w1.gif

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110409w3.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's down trend was still in progress and dropped to as low as 0.9525 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110409w2.gif

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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose to as high as 85.51 last week but lost momentum and turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some consolidations below 85.51 temporary top first. But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110409w2.gif

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF rose to 1.3234 las week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll see which side EUR/CHF breaks out. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110409w2.gif

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[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP retreated last week but downside was contained well above 0.8653 support as expected. Nevertheless, as upside is still limited below 0.8552 resistance, initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110409w2.gif

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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 123.07 last week. While the cross lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110409w2.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110409w3.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 139.99 last week but lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week. While some more rise might be seen initially this week, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110409w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110409w2.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110409w3.gif

[m.youssif]

The EURUSD continued its strong bullish momentum this week after made a clear break above 1.4281 key resistance area and closed at 1.4483 on Friday. On my h4 chart below we can see price still moving smoothly inside the bullish channel. The white trend line, is actually the upper line of the bearish channel on weekly chart and already broken to the upside, suggests potential failure of the bearish weekly outlook at least testing December 2008 high at 1.4718 next week. On the downside, bearish correction warning and bullish exhaustion indicated by a CCI divergence which could test 1.4350 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD made a temporary top at 1.6426 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 0.8921 should have finished at 0.9339 already and further fall should be seen to retest 0.8921 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside with 1.0506 minor support intact. Current rise 0.9704 should be targeting 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 85.51 temporary top, possibly with retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at ). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

As noted before, while some rise might be seen in GBP/JPY, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

While EUR/JPY is losing some upside momentum, further rise will remain in favor with 120.74 minor support intact. Current rally from 106.57 should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. There is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3423). On the downside, below 1.3053 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.8852 resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out but even in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110411a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110411a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday after break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9000 – 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9130. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 0.9200/30 resistance area but would change my medium outlook back to neutral bias.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily2-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110411b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110411b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen below 1.6426 temporary top. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110411b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110411b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a test on 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9160 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110411b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110411b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 85.51 temporary top is still in progress and deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 84.13). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110411b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110411b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday and fell below 1.4400 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4350 but note that overall price is still in a major strong bullish outlook since the break above 1.4035 and I think the current short term bearish bias is only a normal correction. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish consolidation testing 1.4300 – 1.4250. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.4450 to end this bearish correction phase and continue the bullish scenario at least retesting 1.4500 – 1.4550.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdhourly-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdhourly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday and hit 1.6276 earlier today in Asian session after another failure to make a clear break above 1.6400. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6250 – 1.6170 but note that the daily outlook remains sideways. Immediate resistance at 1.6360. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish retesting 1.6400 but we need a clear break above 1.6400 to continue the bullish scenario, still testing 1.6450 – 1.6500.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF still able to maintain its bearish bias so far and hit 0.9017 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 0.9000 – 0.8900. Immediate resistance at 0.9070. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to neutral but only a clear break above 0.9130 could halt the current strong bearish outlook.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, broke below 84.70 and hit 83.45 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 83.00 but note that the major scenario remains bullish and only a consistent move below 82.00 could be a threat to the major bullish outlook. On the upside, immediate resistance at 84.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and we need a clear break above 85.00 to end this bearish correction phase retesting 85.90 key resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily1-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday and slipped below 120.75 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 119.30 as we are now in bearish correction phase but note the major bullish scenario remains intact. I don’t expect any movement below 119.30, but a clear break below 119.30 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 118.00 even 116.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 121.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and only a clear break above 122.59 would end this bearish consolidation phase, still targeting 125.44 and 127.90.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpydaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpydaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after broke below the range area as you can see on my h1 chart below and hit 135.96 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 135.00. Immediate resistance at 137.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 138.00 but only a clear break above 139.00 would end this bearish correction phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh12-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh12.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday and hit 1.0388 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0330 but unless price fall below 1.0200 the major bullish outlook should remains strong. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.0500 to end this bearish correction phase still targeting 1.0650 – 1.0700 new all time high projection.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9623 minor resistance indicates that a short term bottom is in place with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for stronger recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's break of 1.0506 minor support and the sharp retreat indicates that a short term top is likely in place at 1.0581 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some consolidations could be seen first. Nevertheless, consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 1.0287 support holds and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.0581 will target 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's retreat from 85.51 is still in progress and deeper fall might be seen. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110412a2.gif

[seragsamy]

متابعة مستمرة ومجهود جميل بالتوفيق لك يارب

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's break of 1.4383 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place at 1.4486 and intraday bias is turned neural. Some consolidations could be seen with risk of retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4294). But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.4486 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.6426 temporary top is still in progress. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and fall from 0.9339 is expected to continue towards 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9128 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 137.87 minor support indicates that a short term top is possibly formed at 139.99 already. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some consolidations could be seen first. But downside is expected to be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside above 139.99 will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 120.74 minor support suggests that a short term top is possibly formed at 123.31 already. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. but after all, downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8852 resistance suggests that recent rise is resuming and intraday bias is back to the upside for .8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's break of 1.3053 minor support suggests that rise from 1.2432 has completed at 1.3234 after hitting 100% projection target. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.2736 support next. Break will confirm this case and also indicates that consolidation from 1.2401 is also completed too. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to retest 1.2401 low then.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



EUR/USD's rally resumes after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.4518 in early US session. Recent rally has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4377 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110412b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110412b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dives to as low as 0.8945 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9104 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110412b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110412b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and retreat from 85.51 could extend lower. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110412b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110412b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's retreat from 1.6426 extends further today and touches 4 hours 55 EMA before recovering. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110412b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110412b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4377 minor support intact and further rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4377 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110413a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. Consolidations from 1.6426 might extend further but downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Further decline is still expected in USD/CHF with 0.9104 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.8921 low will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9104 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen below 1.0581 short term top. Nevertheless, consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 1.0287 support holds and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

A short term bottom is formed at 0.9525 in USD/CAD and stronger recovery might be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidations from 85.51 is still in progress and deeper retreat might be seen. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.8940 resistance first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8860 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

As noted before, rebound from 1.2432 should have completed at 1.3234 already after hitting 100% projection target. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736 support next. Break will confirm this case and also indicate that consolidation from 1.2401 is completed too. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to retest 1.2401 low then. On the upside, above 1.3053 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and bring some consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110413a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110413a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations from 139.99 short term top would be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside above 139.99 will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110413a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110413a2.gif