تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 123.31 short term top. Deeper retreat might be seen but downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110412a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110412a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4518 but corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.4453. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although my daily and weekly outlook is bullish, the CCI bearish divergence seen on h4 chart below still suggests potential bullish exhaustion and downside correction while the upside momentum seems limited. Do not rush jump into the market and let’s keep our stop losses very tight. Immediate support at 1.4400 followed by 1.4350. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.4250 which is the upper line of the previous range. On the upside, a clear break above 1.4518 would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.4550 – 1.4600 area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.6226 and closed at 1.6258. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear break below 1.6220 testing 1.6090. The false breakout above the range gives us more bearish intraday bias but note that overall outlook remains sideways as price still trapped inside the range area as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.6300. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but could open the door for another retest of 1.6400 resistance area. CCI in negative area indicates potential downside pressure.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.8940 and closed at 0.8970. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 0.8900 – 0.8850. Immediate resistance at 0.9000. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9070 but only a clear break back above 0.9130 could halt the current strong bearish outlook.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 83.45 and closed at 83.75. Price is now in a bearish correction phase. Important support to be watched closely is around 83.45, which form a triple bottom formation as you can see on my h4 chart below. At the same time, we have a CCI bullish divergence suggests potential upside pressure but only a clear break above 84.70 would potentially end the current bearish correction phase retesting 85.90 key resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below the triple bottom formation and 83.45 would continue the current bearish correction testing 82.55/00 key support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 120.14 but closed higher at 121.28. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains bullish but we have a CCI bearish divergence as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential bullish exhaustion and bearish pullback. Expected daily range at 122.59 – 119.30. Immediate resistance at 122.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 122.59. A clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase but we need a clear break above 123.31 to continue the major bullish scenario. Immediate support at 120.75. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 119.30.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpydaily1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpydaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish intraday bias yesterday but still unable to break below 135.00 support area. Price is still in a strong bearish correction phase but need a clear break below 135.00 to continue the bearish phase, even could lead us to a bearish reversal scenario at least testing 133.50. Immediate resistance at 137.50, which I think is the best place for a short intraday position with good risk – reward ratio. A clear break above 137.50 would halt the current strong bearish correction phase but we need a clear break above 139.67 to end the bearish correction and continue the major bullish scenario since the intervention.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains strongly bullish, but we have a CCI bearish divergence as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential bullish exhaustion and bearish correction still testing 1.0330, but only a clear break below 1.0200 could be a threat to the current major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.0500. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.0581. Immediate support at 1.0430. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish at testing 1.0388/30 support area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily3-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



Even though EUR/USD is losing some upside momentum, intraday bias will remain on the upside with 1.4377 minor support intact and current rally is still expected to extend further towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Break of 1.4377 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110413b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110413b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD is still bounded is consolidation pattern from 1.6426 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Even in case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110413b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110413b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 0.8921 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9104 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110413b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110413b2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as consolidations from 85.51 short term top is still in progress. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110413b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110413b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was unable to make a clear break above 1.4518 yesterday and corrected lower hit 1.4406 earlier today in Asian session. The CCI bearish divergence gave us a valid signal of bullish exhaustion and bearish correction. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4350. A clear break below that area could open the door for further bearish pullback testing 1.4250. However, note that the current bearish intraday bias should be seen as a counter trend/corrective move and the major bullish outlook remains intact/strong as long as price still moves inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.4470. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break above 1.4518 could end the current bearish correction phase at least testing 1.4550 – 1.4600 area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see price is moving inside a triangle formation suggests a consolidation phase, looking for a new intraday bias. A clear break above the triangle and 1.6300 would change the intraday bias to bullish retesting 1.6400 key resistance area. On the other hand, a clear break below the triangle and 1.6220 would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.6170 – 1.6090.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdhourly1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdhourly1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall outlook remains strongly bearish. On hourly chart below we can see price is trapped in range area of 0.8990 – 0.8927. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. A clear break above 0.8990 could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9055. On the other hand, a clear break below 0.8927 would continue the bearish momentum testing 0.8850.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfhourly-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfhourly.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see price is moving inside a descending triangle, suggests the bearish correction likely to continue especially if price able to make a clear break below the triangle and 83.45 testing 82.55/00 support area. However, note that the major bullish outlook remains intact. Immediate resistance at 84.20 area. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break above 84.70 could end the current bearish correction phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday but still able to maintain its bearish correction bias and hit 120.17 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 119.30 but note that the current bearish intraday outlook should be seen as a counter trend/corrective move and the major bullish scenario remains intact. Immediate resistance at 121.20/40 area. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and could create some upside pressure testing 122.59 but only a clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh41-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh41.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 137.19 but closed lower at 136.27 and hit 135.51 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term still targeting 135.00. A clear break below 135.00 could be a threat to the bullish scenario and could be a beginning of a new bearish phase at least testing 133.50. Immediate resistance at 136.40. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term 137.19/50 resistance area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily2-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. There are no changes in my daily outlook where price still in a major bullish outlook but seems to be in overbought area suggests by the CCI bearish divergence like I showed you on my daily chart yesterday. On hourly chart below we have a rising wedge bearish formation which support the CCI bearish divergence view especially if price able to make a clear break below the wedge and 1.0450 targeting 1.0330 support area. However note that any downside pullback now is normal and should be seen as a counter trend/corrective move and the major bullish outlook remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.0538. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.0581 even aiming for new all time high projection around 1.0700.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh11-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh11.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD continues to lose upside momentum with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. But with 1.4377 minor support intact, current rise is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Break of 1.4377 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drew support from 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounds strongly. But upside is limited below 1.6426 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen. Though, even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's drops to as low as 0.8895 so far today and the break of 0.8921 support indicates that the larger down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD recovers mildly after drawing support but upside is still limited below 1.0581. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.0581 short term top. Nevertheless, consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 1.0287 support holds and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continues to consolidate above 0.9525 short term bottom and more recovery could be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 is still in progress and deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations from 139.99 short term top would be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside above 139.99 will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and consolidations from 123.31 could extend further with another dip. But downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP forms a temporary top at 0.8922 and intraday bias is turned neutral. But after all, with 0.8713 support intact, recent rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dips further to 1.2901 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736. Break there will indicate that consolidations from 1.2401 is likely completed and larger downtrend is possibly resuming. On the upside above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110414a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110414a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



EUR/USD's break of 1.4377 minor support suggests that a short term top is in place at 1.4519. Consolidations should now be seen with risk of pull back to lower channel support (now at 1.4166). But downside should be contained by 1.4020 4247 support zone and bring another rally. Above 1.4519 will resume recent rise to 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110414b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110414b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD is still bounded in established range below 1.6426 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation could be seen but even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110414b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110414b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110414b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110414b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside and pull back from 85.51 short term top could extend further lower. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110414b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110414b2.gif

[seragsamy]

كل التوفيق لك أخى العزيز فى المجهود الكبير الذى تقدمه ..

شكرا لك وواصل العمل الجيد نحن نتابعك

[jamal khalil]

شكرا لك اخي يوسف ولكن هل من الممكن ان تخدمني بخصوص اليورو دولار وما هو اتجاهه على المدى القصير يث ان لغتي الانجليزية ليست جيدة وكذلك مبتدئ جدا بالفوركس

كل امتنان ان تلخص لي اليورو دولار حيث لدي عقود ولا اعرف كيف التصرف ولم افهم من تحليلك اين نحن ذاهبين حسب المؤشرات

مع وافر التقدير

[m.youssif]

شكرا لك اخي يوسف ولكن هل من الممكن ان تخدمني بخصوص اليورو دولار وما هو اتجاهه على المدى القصير يث ان لغتي الانجليزية ليست جيدة وكذلك مبتدئ جدا بالفوركس

كل امتنان ان تلخص لي اليورو دولار حيث لدي عقود ولا اعرف كيف التصرف ولم افهم من تحليلك اين نحن ذاهبين حسب المؤشرات

مع وافر التقدير

بصراحة يا اخي اليورو الان في منطقة حيرة بين البيع أو الشراء علي المدي القصير لا استطيع ان افيدك ولكن علي المدي الطويل فهو عند منطقة مقاومات مهمة ولكن ربما أستطيع أن أفيدك بعد الاغلاق الاسبوعي للمدي البعيد

[jamal khalil]

شاكرا لك تفاعلك مع كل التقدير والاحترام

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4364 but closed higher at 1.4501. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving inside a range area of 1.4519 – 1.4350 and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction. The major outlook remains bullish but need a clear break above 1.4519 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4550 – 1.4600 even higher. On the other hand, a clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.4250 support area. The best intraday strategy for now is to short around 1.4519 or long around 1.4350 with tight stop loss.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart7-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart7.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday after break above the triangle as you can see on my h1 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400 but note that overall this pair is still in sideways condition and need a clear break and consistent move above 1.6400 to continue the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.6330/10. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6275 – 1.6220 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdhourly2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdhourly2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8895. While the major outlook remains strongly bearish, note that we have important support around 0.8900 and need to be clearly broken to the downside to continue the bearish scenario. As you can see on my h4 chart below, we have a CCI bullish divergence indicates potential bearish exhaustion and bullish pullback testing 0.9000/55 especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.8950. On the downside, a clear break below 0.8900 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8850/00 area and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh42-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh42.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. However, I think the intraday bias remains more to the downside as bearish correction phase is not over yet. Although a little bit mess, the descending triangle bearish scenario remains intact, still targeting 82.55/00 key support area. Immediate resistance at 83.50 followed by 83.80. A clear break above 83.80 would change the intraday bias to bullish but we need a clear break above 84.70 to potentially end the current bearish correction phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but closed significantly higher at 121.33 after found a good support around 119.30. This fact keeps us in sideways outlook from h4 chart point of view, indicates consolidation phase but still within a context of major bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 120.20. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 119.30. Immediate resistance remains around 121.20/40. A clear break above that area could create some upside pressure testing 122.59 but only a clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh42-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh42.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 135.27 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 136.93. The pair was traded lower at the time I wrote this comment around 135.90, change my intraday bias back to bearish still targeting 135.00. Overall price still trapped in range area of 139.67 – 135.00 and a clear break below 135.00 would lead us to a new bearish outlook at least testing 133.50. On the upside, immediate resistance at 136.30. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 137.00/50 resistance area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0549 and closed at 1.0543. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0581. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside momentum targeting new all time high projection around 1.0700. However, as you can see on my h1 chart below, the rising wedge formation is still a threat to the current bullish outlook. A clear break below the wedge and 1.0500 – 1.0450 support area could trigger downside pullback testing 1.0330 area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh12-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh12.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.4159. But even in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. The pair is still bounded in established range below 1.6426 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation could be seen but even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD is staying in range below 1.0581 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall could be seen but we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0287 support and bring another rise. Above 1.0581 will target target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as consolidations from 0.9525 continues. Stronger recovery could be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pullback from 85.51 is still in progress and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for further fall. But still, downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and consolidations from 0.8922 could extend further lower. However, with 0.8713 support intact, recent rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF recovers mildly after dipping to 1.2843 but with 1.3053 minor resistance intact, fall from 1.3234 is still expected to continue to 1.2736 support first. Break there will indicate that consolidations from 1.2401 is likely completed and larger downtrend is possibly resuming. On the upside above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's consolidations from 123.31 is still in progress and deeper retreat might be seen. But downside is still expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 122.15 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY is consolidation around 4 hours 55 EMA for the moment but lacks buying for a meaning recovery. With 137.62 minor resistance intact, pull back from 139.99 is still in favor to extend further lower. But we'd continue to expect strong support above 132.95 resistance turned support to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 132.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110415a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110415a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.4519 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen but we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110415b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110415b2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. The pair is still bounded in established range below 1.6426 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation could be seen but even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110415b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110415b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, a temporary low is in place and some recovery could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9045). But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9213) and bring fall resumption. Current decline is expected to target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 on resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110415b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110415b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 84.42 minor resistance intact, USD/JPY pull back from 85.51 could still extend lower. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110415b1.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Consolidation, need another breakout to continue the bullish scenario





The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused this week. A quick look at h4 chart reveals that price is moving in a range area of 1.4518 – 1.4350. About few weeks ago, I wrote that the current major bullish movement is characterized by some bearish/sideways consolidation and bullish run continued after made a break above the range/previous high. As you can see on my daily chart below, the bullish momentum continued last week after a clear break above 1.4250, which is the previous high after a minor bearish correction/consolidation to 1.4025. From this point of view, the current major bullish scenario should remains strong as long as price stays above 1.4250 and a clear break above 1.4518 could continue the bullish run testing 1.4700 – 1.4800 area. Now let’s take a look at CCI. During the bullish run and some consolidations/corrections, CCI never fall below zero line suggests strong bullish view. A break below 1.4250 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3427 – 1.4518) and daily CCI below zero line would be a threat to the current bullish outlook.

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[jamal khalil]

اسعد الله صباحك اخي

ونقدر جهودك باعطاؤنا هذه التقارير

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook



EUR/USD edged higher to 1.4519 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But even in case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 extended further to as low as 1.2843 last week before making a temporary low there and recovered. The development indicates that rise from 1.2432 is completed at 1.3234 already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, upside should be limited by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD pulled back and consolidate below 1.0581 high last week. The pair drew some support from 4 hours 55 EMA and recovered but upside was still limited below 1.0581 resistance. Hence, initial bias will remain neutral this week and more consolidations could still be seen. Below 1.0465 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0388 and below. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continued to consolidate above 0.9525 short term bottom last week and touched 0.9666 support turned resistance as expected. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations might be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extend further last week and initial bias will remains mildly on the downside this week for deeper retreat. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally extended to as high as 0.8922 last week before making a temporary top there and retreated. While there is no acceleration in upside momentum, the cross managed to stay well inside near term rising channel. Thus, recent rally is still expected to continue. Above 0.8892 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. After all, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 extended further to as low as 1.2843 last week before making a temporary low there and recovered. The development indicates that rise from 1.2432 is completed at 1.3234 already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, upside should be limited by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY edged higher to 123.31 last week but made a short term top there and retreated. With 122.15 minor resistance intact, initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for some more correction. But downside is expected to be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 122.15 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY pull back last week and reached as low as 135.25 before stabilizing around 4 hours 55 EMA. With 137.62 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could still be seen initially this week. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 137.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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[Raed]

الله يعطيك العافية على المجهود الطيب.
أتمنى أنتهج طريقة القمم والقيعان في التداول.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its downside consolidation earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.4350 support area. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that we need a clear break below 1.4350 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.4250 and the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.4425/50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong retesting 1.4518 key resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart8-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart8.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was unable to continue its bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a bearish channel after the false breakout above 1.6400. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6220. Immediate resistance at 1.6330. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 1.6400 key resistance area. Below 1.6220, next support to be tested is seen around 1.6090.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall price is still in a major bearish outlook but seems found a good support around 0.8900 while at the same time CCI bullish divergence suggests potential bearish exhaustion and bullish consolidation testing 0.9000. /55. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.8900 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8850/00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh43-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh43.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction on Friday and hit 82.85 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still testing 82.55/00 support area. On h1 chart below we have two descending triangle formation which are drawn from different perspective, but both suggests a bearish intraday view. Immediate resistance at 83.25 followed by 83.75.

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[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday and slipped below 119.30 earlier today in Asian session. As you can see on my daily chart below we have a V-Top formation suggests potential bearish view especially if price able to move consistently below 119.30 testing 118.00 – 116.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.00. A Clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 121.50 my intraday outlook remains more to the downside.

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[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session slipped below 135.00 support area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially is price able to make a clear break below 135.00 at least testing 133.50 – 132.50 support area. Immediate resistance at 135.70/80. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 137.00/50 my intraday technical bias is more to the downside. CCI in negative territory on h4 chart suggests downside pressure.

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[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD still able to maintain its bullish bias on Friday while EUR/USD and GBP/USD were corrected lower. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0581. A clear break above that area would trigger further bullish momentum aiming for new all time high projection around 1.0700. Immediate support at 1.0520/00. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish as the rising wedge bearish correction scenario might be validated, testing 1.0400 – 1.0330 support area.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.4519 is still in progress and deeper retreat might be seen. But downside should be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.6426 is still in progress and another fall could be seen. But downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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[m.youssif]

While USD/CHF lost some intraday downside momentum with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, recovery is so far weak. Hence, intraday bias remains mildly on the downside and below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 will suggest short term bottoming and bring recovery through 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9028).

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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[m.youssif]

With 1.0581 resistance intact, consolidation from there might extend further. Below 1.0465 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0388 and below. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9525 continues. Another rise cannot be ruled out but even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside as pull back from 85.51 continues. . Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110418a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110418a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidations from 0.8922 is still in progress. Recent rally is still expected to continue. Above 0.8892 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. After all, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110418a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110418a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's consolidation from 1.2843 might extend further but even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110418a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110418a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 extends further today and reaches 118.93 so far. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper fall but downside is expected to be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 121.46 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110418a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110418a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's pull back from 139.99 extends further today and dips to 134.86 so far. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for further decline. But still, downside is expected to be contained by above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 137.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110418a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110418a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD's pull back from 1.4519 extends further to as low as 1.4298 in early US session. Consolidation from 1.4519 might still extend further. But at this point, we'd still expect strong support from 1.4247 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.4519 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.4247 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015).
In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110418b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110418b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6426 continues. Even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110418b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110418b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains cautiously on the downside and a break of 0.8895 will extend recent decline towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 will suggest short term bottoming and bring recovery through 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9028).

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110418b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110418b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extends further to as low as 82.54 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper decline. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110418b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110418b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURGBP's pull back from 0.8922 extends further to as low as 0.8767 so far today. Deeper decline could be seen but we'd still expect downside to be contained by 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) and bring rally resumption. Above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8676).

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110418b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110418b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumes today and reaches as low as 1.2757 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.2948 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110418b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110418b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after made a clear break below 1.4350, slipped below the bullish channel and bottomed at 1.4156. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently below the bullish channel and 1.4156 testing 1.4035. Although remains intact, the major bullish scenario is under a serious pressure and need another move back above 1.4350 to keep the bullish scenario strong. Immediate resistance at 1.4280 – 1.4300. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4350.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart9-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart9.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.6164 but closed higher at 1.6263. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the overall intraday bias should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.6320 followed by 1.6400. On the downside, another move below 1.6220 could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.6090.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 0.9000 – 0.8900 indicates consolidation. The major scenario remains bearish but like I said yesterday, we have potential bearish exhaustion and bullish pullback testing 0.9000/55. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.8900 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8850/00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh44-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh44.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after break below the descending triangle as you can see on my hourly chart below bottomed at 82.17 but was corrected higher and hit 82.67 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still testing 82.00. A clear break below 82.00 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.50. However, beware of potential intervention by the Japanese government and G7 countries to weaken the Yen.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.46 and closed at 117.41. The V-Top formation gave us a valid bearish signal. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 116.00. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 113.50. Immediate resistance at 118.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 119.30 the intraday bias remains more to the downside

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpydaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpydaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after made a clear break below 135.00, bottomed at 132.97 and closed at 134.13. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 132.50. Immediate resistance at 134.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 135.00 the intraday bias should more to the downside.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh41-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh41.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, break below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0400 – 1.0330. Immediate resistance at 1.0500. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but unless price makes a clear break above 1.0581 we are still in a bearish correction phase.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh14-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh14.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.4157 so far and the break of 1.4247 support dampens the immediate bullish view. Nevertheless, outlook is not too bad yet as EUR/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel. We'll stay neutral first. A break above 1.4364 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4519 has likely completed and will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4519 will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD dives to as low as 1.6166 but drew support from mentioned 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and recovered quickly. Outlook remains unchanged as we'd still treat price actions from 1.6426 as consolidations only. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 1.6382 will suggest that recent rally is resuming for 1.6426 and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, break of 1.6166 will now dampen this view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF should have made a temporary low at 0.8895 and stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9017) and above. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9198) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops to as low as 82.18 so far but is still holding above mentioned 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03). Outlook remains unchanged as we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's dropped to as low as 0.8739 so far but is still holding above mentioned 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705). Outlook remains unchanged and we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Above 0.8807 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 0.8922 and then 0.8940 resistance. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8681) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 132.98 so far and is now trying to draw support from mentioned 132.96 resistance turned support, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99. The bullish outlook remains unchanged and we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY drops sharply to as low as 116.46 but is still holding above 115.96 resistance turned support. Outlook remains unchanged. Rebound from 106.57 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Above 119.25 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 123.31 first and break will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. However, note that sustained trading below 115.53 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF drops to as low as 1.2785 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. As noted before, consolidation from 1.2401 might have completed with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Sustained break of 1.2736 will affirm this view and should push EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low to resume the larger down trend. On the upside, break of 1.2948 minor resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.0581 is still in progress and break of 1.0465 minor support now flips bias to the downside for 1.0388 and possibly below. But after all, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's recovery extends further to as high as 0.9720 and more consolidation could still be seen. But after all, upside is expected to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9587 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110419a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110419a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



As noted before, since EUR/USD is still holding well inside near term rising channel, outlook is not turned bearish yet despite deeper than expected fall from 1.4519. We'll stay neutral first. A break above 1.4364 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.4519 has likely completed and will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.4519 will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4015) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110419b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110419b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6426 is still in progress. On the upside, above 1.6382 will suggest that recent rally is resuming for 1.6426 and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, note that break of 1.6166 will will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110419b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110419b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8895 temporary low is still in progress and stronger recovery could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9017) and above. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9198) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110419b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110419b2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110419b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110419b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's sharp fall and break of 0.9587 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.9525 is already completed at 0.9720. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9525 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. In case of more consolidation, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110419b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110419b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday after unable to stay consistently below the bullish channel and 1.4250 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario remains strong. The bias is bullish in nearest term retesting 1.4518 key resistance area. Note that we need a clear break above 1.4518 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4700 – 1.4800 region. Below 1.4518, I think price is still in consolidation phase. Immediate support at 1.4350. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4300 – 1.4250 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart10-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart10.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.6337 and now slip above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400/20 key resistance area. Immediate support at 1.6300. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6220 support area. A quick look at daily chart reveals that price has been moving in a sideways condition between 1.6400 – 1.5950 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 0.9000 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. There are no changes in my daily outlook, where the major scenario remains strongly bearish but price is still in a consolidation phase as bearish seems exhausted. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 0.8950. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 0.8900 key support area. A clear break below 0.8900 could end the consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario targeting 0.8850/00 even lower. On the upside, a clear break above 0.9000 could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9055 – 0.9130 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh45-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh45.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday and hit 83.09 earlier today in Asian session. Overall price is still in a bearish correction phase and need a clear break above 84.70 to continue the bullish scenario after the intervention, but my intraday bias is now bullish testing 83.77 area. After broke below the descending triangle, the downside pressure was limited and price moved in another symmetrical triangle which is now has been broken to the upside suggests more bullish intraday bias. Immediate support at 82.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish correction remains strong still testing 82.00 key support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly6-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyhourly6.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue it bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break below 116.00 key support area and now struggling around 119.30 as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the bullish scenario which started since the intervention remains intact especially if price able to make a clear break above 119.30 and the trend line resistance (white) testing 121.40. However note that as long as price stays below 123.31 we are still in consolidation phase. Immediate support at 118.50. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish correction phase remains strong, still testing 116.00 key support area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh43-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh43.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday and slipped back above 135.00 as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the bullish scenario which started since the intervention remains intact, but as long as price stays below 139.67 we are still in consolidation phase and intraday movement can be tricky. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 137.00. Immediate support at 135.00. Another move back below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but could reopen the door for another downside attempt testing 132.50.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh42-300x191.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh42.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bearish correction yesterday and hit 1.0597 earlier today in Asian session. My rising wedge scenario is no longer valid. On the other hand, as you can see on my h4 chart below, we have an ascending triangle suggests a bullish continuation scenario testing new all time high projection around 1.0700. Immediate support at 1.0530. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall this pair is in a strong bullish phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusdh4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's strong rebound from 1.4157 kept itself inside near term rising channel and the break of 1.4363 minor resistance retains bullish outlook. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4519 and break will confirm rally resumption for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. However, below 1.4157 will bring deeper fall to 55 days EMA instead (now at 1.4038) and below.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.6166 extends further to as high as 1.6379 today so far. As noted before, break of 1.6382 resistance will suggest that whole rise from 1.5935 is resuming. In such case, further rally should be seen through 1.6426 support towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, note that break of 1.6166 will will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8895 might still be in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Above 0.9006 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9176) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8895 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises to new record high of 1.0606 today and the break of 1.0581 confirms resumption of recent rally. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, break of 1.0442 support will indicate that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 1.0235).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dips lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9525 support Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9582 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations first. But even in case of another recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral. As noted before, with 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 119.25 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 123.31 is finished at 116.46, as being supported above 115.96 support. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. After all, outlook remains bullish as long as 115.96 support holds. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 115.96 will turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 132.96 resistance turned support intact, bullish outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and rise from 122.40 is expected to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8807 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 0.8922 has completed at 0.8739 already. Intraday bias is back to the upside for 0.8922 and then 0.8940 resistance. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. Note that outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) holds and we'd expect recent rise to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8686) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF drew strong support from 1.2736 and rebounded. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment but with 1.2948 minor resistance intact, the near term bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, consolidation from 1.2401 should have finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Below 1.2728 will affirm this view and should push EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low to resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2948 will delay the bearish view and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110420a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110420a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and current up trend is expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4412 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110420b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110420b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6382 indicates that consolidation from 1.6462 is completed at 1.6166 already and rise from 1.5935 is resuming. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6308 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish view and turn outlook neutral instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110420b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110420b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.8895 support indicates that recent decline has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.9006 resistance will bring another recovery. But upside should be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 0.9176) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110420b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110420b2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally extends further to new record high of 1.0690 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, below 1.0596 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0388 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110420b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110420b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) intact, we'd still expect rebound from 76.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 83.77 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87. However, note that sustained break of 81.97 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 80.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110420b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110420b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above 1.4518 and hit 1.4581 earlier today in Asian session. Just like previous breakouts (see h4 chart below), the current strong breakout above 1.4518 could continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4700 – 1.4800. The bias remains bullish in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.4518. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4480/50 support area but the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart11-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart11.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after broke above the bearish channel and hit 1.6446 earlier today in Asian session. The breakout above the bearish channel (which also can be seen as a bullish flag from another perspective) and the upper line of the range area gives us a bullish continuation scenario at least testing 1.6600 even 1.7000 in longer term outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6500. Immediate support at 1.6400. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6350 but overall I think the pressure remains strongly to the upside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily2-300x191.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below the range area and hit 0.8853 earlier today in Asian session. This fact could end the consolidation phase and continue the major bearish scenario at least targeting 0.8800 – 0.8750 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8900. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8950 but overall I think the pressure remains strongly to the downside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday and now testing 82.00 support area which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 to 85.51. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear break below 82.00 testing 80.85 (50% Fibo). However, note that a strong Yen appreciation could create speculation about another potential intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 82.50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 83.00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 120.38 but still struggling around the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 121.40 but need a clear break above 120.38 to continue the bullish pressure. CCI is moving up above zero level but still unable to move above 100 line suggests potential upside pressure but need a movement above 100 line to find good and strong bullish momentum. Immediate support at 119.30. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 118.72 (yesterday’s low).

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh44-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh44.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart and now still struggling around 135.00 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. CCI is moving down below zero level on daily chart suggests more bearish intraday bias but need a movement below -100 to continue the bearish pressure testing 132.50. Immediate support to be tested is around 133.75/50. A clear break below that area would trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.50 even lower. The overall technical bias remains to the downside but a strong Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 135.80. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 137.00 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after a strong break out above 1.0581 and hit another new historical high at 1.0770 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0850 – 1.0900 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0670. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0600 but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD reaches as high as 1.4627 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4484 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.6484 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 next. On the downside, below 1.6384 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.6166 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's decline is still in progress and reaches as low as 0.8841 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812. Break will target 100% projection at 0.8486. On the upside, break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches new record high of 1.0770 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. On the downside, below 1.0674 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0388 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110421a1.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9525 support confirms resumption of recent down trend. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9556 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 0.9720 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extends further to as low as 81.87 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) will argue that whole rebound from 76.40 is already completed at 85.51 and deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88. On the upside, above 83.09 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 85.51 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, however, break of 80.50 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 76.40 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for 0.8922 resistance. Break will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. Note that outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8713 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8922 at 0.8705) holds and we'd expect recent rise to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 0.8705/12 will bring deeper decline to 55 days EMA (now at 0.8686) instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

The slightly stronger than expected recovery from 1.2728 dampens the immediate bearish view and mixes out near term outlook. We'll stay neutral first. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are consolidations in the larger down trend only. Below 1.2728 will revive the case that such consolidation has completed at 1.3234 already and target a new low below 1.2401.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 132.96 resistance turned support intact, bullish outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged and rise from 122.40 is expected to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus to 130.17 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

As noted before, EUR/JPY's pull back might have completed at 116.46 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. After all, outlook remains bullish as long as 115.96 support holds. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 115.96 will turn focus back to 113.54 support instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110421a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110421a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



With 1.4484 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4484 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.4157 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110421b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110421b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6598 so far today and meet mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next. On the downside, below 1.6482 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110421b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110421b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8780 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline should now target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8851 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110421b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110421b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 81.61 so far today and the break of 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) argue that whole rebound from 76.40 is already finished. Intraday bias remains on the downside and deeper decline should be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88. On the upside, above 83.09 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, the deeper then expected fall from 85.51 dampens the view that USD/JPY has bottomed out at 76.40 in the long term. Also, considering that USD/JPY is still limited by a falling 55 weeks EMA and the long term falling trend line, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. A break of mentioned 79.88 fibonacci level will bring a test on 76.40 low first.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110421b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110421b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4647 but closed significantly lower at 1.4558, made a shooting star candle stick formation as you can see on my daily chart below, suggests potential bearish pullback especially if price breaks below 1.4518 support area (former resistance) testing 1.4400 even lower to the lower line of the bullish channel. On the upside, we need a clear movement back above 1.4581 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.4647 even higher. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusddaily2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusddaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6598 but closed lower at 1.6518. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a context of a strong bullish scenario after the break above the bullish flag and range area as you can see on my h4 chart below at least testing 1.6700 area. On the downside, immediate support at 1.6470. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish but only a movement back below 1.6400 support area can be a threat to the current bullish technical outlook. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart4-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8779 but closed higher at 0.8860, made a hammer candle stick formation as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential upside correction especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.8900 testing 0.9000. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.8779 to cancel the bullish hammer formation scenario testing 0.8700 – 0.8600. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily6-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily6.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bearish intraday bias yesterday and now traded below 82.00 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 to 85.51 as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 80.85 (50% Fibo). CCI in negative territory suggests downside pressure. However, note that a strong Yen appreciation could create speculation about another potential intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 82.00. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 82.50 – 83.00. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpydaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was unable to maintain its bullish momentum yesterday and now traded below 119.30 support area after unable to make a break above 120.38. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 118.00. On the upside, another move above 119.30 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and only a clear break above 120.38 would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 121.40. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh45-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh45.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart and still struggling around 135.00 area. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. CCI still moves below zero level on daily chart suggests more bearish intraday bias but need a movement below -100 to continue the bearish pressure testing 132.50. Immediate support to be tested is around 133.75/50. A clear break below that area would trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.50 even lower. The overall technical bias remains to the downside but a strong Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention to weaken the Yen. Immediate resistance at 135.80. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 137.00 resistance area. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpydaily5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday although the bullish momentum is not as strong as what happened on Wednesday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still testing 1.0850 – 1.0900 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0700. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.0600 but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside. Today some markets are closed on Good Friday.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish scenario threatened by shooting star and H&S pattern


The EURUSD attempted to push lower this week, bottomed at 1.4156 but whipsawed to the upside, broke above 1.4518, topped at 1.4647 but closed lower at 1.4562. I believe as long as price able to stay above 1.4518, the major bullish scenario should remain strong at least testing 1.4700 – 1.4800. However, there are two technical factors which can be a threat to the current bullish outlook. First, the shooting star formation on daily chart after strong bullish move suggests potential bearish pullback even a bearish reversal. Usually a shooting star formation with bearish body gives better accuracy, but regardless of the type of the body, shooting star candle stick formation is a bearish warning. Secondly, the “head and shoulders” pattern which appeared on the hourly chart with neckline already broken to the downside. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4156 – 1.4647 around 1.4530 provided a good intraday support. A clear break below 1.4530 – 1.4518 could trigger further bearish pullback at least testing 1.4400 support area even lower as the shooting star bearish scenario could have further validation. Beside 1.4647 resistance area, we need to pay attention to the right shoulder of the H&S formation at 1.4587. A clear break above that area would cancel the H&S bearish scenario testing 1.4647 before testing 1.4700 – 1.4800.

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[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see price still moves inside the bullish channel indicates that the major bullish scenario remains intact. However, pay attention to the 1.4518 support area. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4400 support area and the lower line of the bullish channel and the shooting star bearish warning seen on daily chart as I showed you in my weekly summary may have further validation. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.4605 (current high) to continue the bullish pressure testing 1.4647 before targeting 1.4700 – 1.4800 resistance area.

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[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday. After the strong breakout above 1.6400 the overall outlook remains strongly bullish but we had some downside pressure earlier today in Asian session testing 1.6480 as you can see on my h4 chart below. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.6400. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.6550. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.6700 resistance area and keep the bullish scenario remains strong.

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[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement on Friday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall my technical bias remains strongly bearish but note that the hammer formation seen on daily chart below still suggest potential upside pullback testing 0.8900. On the downside we need a clear break below 0.8779 to cancel the bullish hammer formation scenario testing 0.8700 – 0.8600.

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[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive on Friday but had some upside pressure earlier today in Asian session and so far rejects to move consistently below 82.00 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 83.30 resistance area ( 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). However note that overall we are still in a bearish phase since the fall from 85.51 and another downside pullback below 82.00 could continue the bearish pressure testing 80.85 support area.

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[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive on Friday. As you can see on my hourly below the minor trend line resistance (white) still provide a good resistance after the fall from 123.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another move back below 119.30 could trigger further downside pressure testing 118.61 – 118.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 120.50 but only a clear break above 120.50 could end the current bearish phase testing 123.31.

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[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. On hourly chart below we can see price is moving in a rectangle area of 135.93 – 134.69 indicates sideways condition and need a clear break from either side to see clearer intraday direction. A clear break above 135.93 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 137.00 while a clear break below 134.69 could continue the bearish phase since the failure to make a clear break above 139.67 testing 133.50/00 support area.
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[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a strong bullish outlook. We had some downside pullback earlier today in Asian session testing 1.0684 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0581 but I think the overall bias remains strongly to the upside and I see no sign of potential significant technical bearish view so far and unless price move back below 1.0581 the technical bias remains strongly to the upside testing 1.0850 – 1.0900.
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[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook



EUR/USD's up trend extended further to as high as 1.4647 before making a temporary top there and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations. But retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4647 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally extended last week and met mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588 before making a temporary top at 1.6598. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations But retreat should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6387) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dropped to new record low of 0.8780 before making a temporary low there and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8780 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rose to new record high at 1.0773 last week before losing some upside momentum and retreated. A temporary top should be in place and intraday bias is neutral for some consolidations. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0603) but downside should be contained above 1.0388 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0773 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.8704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dived to as low as 0.9454 but stabilized from there and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen first. Nevertheless, in case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9670) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.61 last week and the break of 81.97 resistance turned support dampens the bullish view that the cross has bottomed out earlier at 76.40. Deeper decline will now remain in favor as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds and further fall could now be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP attempted to recover after hitting 0.8739 but upside was limited below 0.8922 and then cross weakened again. With 0.8713 support intact, we're treating price actions from 0.8922 as consolidation in the larger rally only. Intraday bias remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Break of 0.8922 will indicate rise resumption and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, note that break of 0.8713 support will indicate that EUR/GBP has possibly formed a head and shoulder top pattern and the near term trend has resumed. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8671 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dropped to as low as 1.2728 but recovered since then. The development dampened the immediate bearish view and we'll stay neutral first. On the upside above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress. On the downside, below 1.2728 will resume fall from 1.3234 and affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished t 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's pull back from 123.31 was contained at 116.46, above mentioned 115.96 support and rebounded. Such pull back is likely finished and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for a retest on 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 115.96 support holds but sustained break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline through 113.54 support.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY drew support from mentioned 132.96, 38.2% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99, as well as 55 days EMA and turned sideway. With 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.96 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday in EUR/USD remains neutral and some consolidations could be seen below 1.4647 temporary top. But downside of retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4647 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidations from 1.6598 might extend further. But retreat is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6403) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's fall is resuming and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.0773 first. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0627) but downside should be contained above 1.0388 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0773 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.8704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9453. But still, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9664) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110426a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110426a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and current decline from 85.51 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110426a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110426a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8713 support intact, we're treating price actions from 0.8922 as consolidation in the larger rally only. Intraday bias remains neutral for more sideway trading first. Break of 0.8922 will indicate rise resumption and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, note that break of 0.8713 support will indicate that EUR/GBP has possibly formed a head and shoulder top pattern and the near term trend has resumed. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8671 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110426a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110426a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, EUR/CHF's recovery might have completed at 1.2971 after failing to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2728 support. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110426a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110426a2.gif

[m.youssif]

WIth 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and turned negative, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110426a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110426a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidations from 1.6598 might extend further. But retreat is expected to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6403) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110426b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110426b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's retreat was rather brief and the break of 1.4647 resistance suggests that recent rally is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110426b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110426b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside with 0.8877 minor resistance intact and current decline should now target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110426b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110426b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 82.41 minor resistance intact and current decline from 85.51 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110426b1.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above 1.4647 and hit 1.4709 earlier today I Asian session. This strong breakout after sideways movement since Easter could continue the major bullish scenario targeting 1.4800 even 1.5000 region. Immediate support at 1.4647. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4600 – 1.4575 support area but I think overall the pressure remains strongly to the upside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusddaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusddaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I think the major scenario remains bullish after the breakout above 1.6400. On h4 chart below we have a bullish flag formation suggests a bullish scenario especially if price breaks above the flag and 1.6550 targeting 1.6700. On the downside, only a clear break back below 1.6400 could diminish the current strong bullish outlook.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart7-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart7.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, broke below 0.8779 and bottomed at 0.8668. The hammer candle stick formation has failed and price may continue its strong bearish scenario from here targeting 0.8600. Immediate resistance at 0.8779 (former support). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily8-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily8.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bearish intraday bias yesterday, bottomed at 81.25 and closed at 81.37. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 80.85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51) before testing 79.80 (61.8%% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51). Immediate resistance remains around 82.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 82.50 but overall we are still in a bearish phase. CCI remains in negative territory suggest further downside pressure is potential.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break below 118.40 support area. From another perspective as you can see on my h1 chart below price is moving in a range area of 120.38 – 118.40 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 120.38 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 121.40 while a clear break below 118.40 could continue the current bearish phase testing 117.00 even 116.00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh13-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh13.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves below 135.00 the intraday bearish bias remains more to the downside still targeting 133.75 support area in nearest term. On the upside, a clear break above 135.00 could trigger further upside pressure testing 135.90 area
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh16-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh16.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continue its bullish momentum yesterday, clearly broken above 1.0770 and hit 1.0851 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0900 even 1.1000 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0810 followed by 1.0780. A clear break below 1.0780 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily9-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily9.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rise should extend further towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.6598 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we'd still expect retreat to be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6419) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6598 will target 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. Though, sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA will turn focus back to 1.6166 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8670 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.0850 so far today, inch below mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0675 support holds and sustained trading above 1.0857 will target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, though, below 1.0675 will indicate that a short term top is formed after hitting a projection target and should bring pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9453. But still, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9649) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9453 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

As noted before, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.98 might have completed at 135.93 after failing 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and retest of 132.98 could be seen. Nevertheless, with 132.96 support intact, we'd still expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later. Above 135.93 will flip bias back to the upside for a retest on 139.99 resistance first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. However, sustained break of 132.96 will dampen this bullish view and would bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement of 122.40 to 139.99 at 129.11 and below.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 82.41 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and current decline from 85.51 could extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY continues to struggle around 4 hours 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 120.37 minor resistance will indicate that rebound from 116.46 has resumed. Intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for 123.31 and then 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8878 minor resistance flips bias back to the upside for 0.8922. Break there will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. In any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later even though consolidations from 0.8922 might extend further.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.2971 was contained above 1.2728 and recovers. Consolidation from 1.2728 might still be in progress and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. With 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110427a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110427a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook (http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-mid-day-outlook-20110427138657/)


EUR/USD reaches as high as 1.4711 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110427b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110427b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's strong rebound today suggests that consolidations from 1.6598 might have completed at 1.6431 already, ahead of 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside and break of 1.6598 will confirm rally resumption for 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657 next and then 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.6431 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper decline towards 1.6166 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110427b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110427b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.8807 minor resistance intact, current decline in USD/CHF is still expected to continue through 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8807 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110427b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110427b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 82.41 minor resistance intact, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 could still extend further and below 81.26 will target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110427b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110427b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 135.93 resistance suggests that rebound form 132.98 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110427b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110427b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's break of 120.37 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 116.46 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for resting 123.31 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110427b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110427b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but again, the previous broken resistance 1.4647 area became a good support before a strong bullish momentum which brought Euro hit 1.4881 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4900 – 1.5000 this week. Immediate support at 1.4790. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart14-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart14.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after break above the bullish flag formation as you can see on my h4 chart below and hit 1.6745 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6850 area before testing 1.7000. Immediate support at 1.6635. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart8-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusdh4chart8.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.8833 but further bullish momentum was rejected, closed lower below 0.8779 and hit 0.8686 earlier today in Asian session. This fact keeps the major bearish scenario strong still targeting 0.8600 in nearest term before targeting 0.8500 area. On the upside, only a consistent move above 0.8779 could trigger further upside correction testing 0.8900 but overall the technical bias remains strongly to the downside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily9-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfdaily9.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 82.73 but quickly whipsawed to the downside and hit 81.61 earlier today in Asian session. This fact keep the bearish phase since the fall from 85.51 remains strong especially if price able to make another strong break below 81.61 still targeting 80.85. On the upside, another move back above 82.00 would lead us to neutral zone as intraday direction would become unclear testing 82.50/73 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart4-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a strong bullish momentum yesterday after break out above the range area as you can see on my hourly chart below and hit 121.82 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 122.50 – 123.31 resistance area. Immediate support at 121.00 – 120.75 followed by 120.38 (former resistance). A clear break below 120.38 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh14-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh14.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a strong bullish momentum yesterday after a strong break above 135.00 and 135.90, hit 137.03 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 137.88 even testing 139.67 especially if price able to make another strong break above 137.00. Note that 137.00 could be a good resistance at this phase and some minor downside pullback might take place but overall my intraday outlook has change to a bullish view as long as price stays above 135.90. A clear break below 135.90 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh17-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh17.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday and hit another new historical high at 1.0946 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.1000 – 1.1050 new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0877. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the scenario remains strongly bullish.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily10-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily10.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD soars further to as high as 1.0945 so far today. 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 is already met and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 1.0773 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.1570. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's recovery from 0.9453 might have finished at 0.9575 already and intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 0.9453 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 next. On the upside, above 0.9575 will bring more consolidation. But in case of stronger recovery, upside of recovery should be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9642) and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Despite recovering to 82.76, USD/JPY failed to sustain gain above 4 hours 55 EMA and dips again today. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD rises further to as high as 1.4880 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4711 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6744 so far and breaks mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.5935 to 1.6426 from 1.6166 at 1.6657. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.6431 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF made a temporary low at 0.8670 and turned sideway. Intraday bias is neutral for the moment and come consolidations could be seen. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rises further to 137.01 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for further rises towards 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rebounds to as high as 121.82 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside with 120.37 minor support intact. Current rise might still extend further to 123.31 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31 but after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rises to 0.8922 but failed to break through this resistance and retreats. Nevertheless, with 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for further rise. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will turn flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2728 continues. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110428a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110428a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook (http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-mid-day-outlook-20110428138774/)


Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4711 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110428b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110428b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment and further all should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.6618 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.6431 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110428b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110428b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.8670 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110428b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110428b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110428b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110428b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. There were some downside pressures but 1.4790 area provided good intraday support so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need another clear break above 1.4881 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.5000. On the downside, a consistent move below 1.4790 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4700 but overall the major outlook remains to the upside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart15-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart15.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6745 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.6643. Overall price is still in a bullish outlook. 1.6635 still provide a good intraday support so far but strong selling activities yesterday force my intraday mode in neutral zone and need a consistent movement at least back above 1.6700 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.6850 and 1.7000. On the downside, a clear break below 1.6635 could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.6580 – 1.6500 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily3-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpusddaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8686 but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed higher at 0.8729. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a context of a strong bearish outlook still targeting 0.8600 – 0.8500 area. Immediate resistance remains around 0.8779 and the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above the bearish channel could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.8900 resistance area but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh47-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdchfh47.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday and now traded below 81.61 support area suggests the downside pressure remains strong. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 80.85. Looks like there is a good intraday support around 81.25, but as long as price stays below 82.00 the intraday bias remains to the downside. Another move back above 82.00 would lead us to neutral zone as intraday direction would become unclear testing 82.50/73 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/usdjpyh4chart5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday but 120.38 support area still provide a good intraday support as you can see on my h4 chart below. I still prefer a bullish intraday outlook but a break below 120.38 could be a threat to my bullish intraday outlook testing 118.40/00 support area. On the upside we need a clear break above 121.40 to change the intraday bias back to bullish and keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 121.80 – 122.50 before testing 123.31.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh46-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurjpyh46.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, fell below 135.90 and now struggling around that area as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact forces my intraday bias to neutral zone but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario. A clear break below 135.50 would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 134.80 – 134.00 support area. On the upside, we need a clear break at least above 136.50 to keep the upside pressure remains strong testing 137.00 and 139.67

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh19-300x191.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/gbpjpyh19.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. There were some minor downside pullback earlier today in Asian session but 1.0877 still provide a good intraday support. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting new historical high projection around 1.1000 – 1.1050. A clear break below 1.0877 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0770 – 1.0750 support area but the major scenario remains strongly to the upside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily11-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/audusddaily11.jpg)

[m.youssif]

With 1.4711 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rally is expected to 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4711 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110429a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rally lost momentum after hitting 1.6744 and made a temporary top there. Some consolidations could be seen now but downside is expected to be contained by 1.6431 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110429a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8670 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Even in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110429a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110429a2.gif