تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rally should now extend further to 1.1 psychological level first. On the downside, however, break of 1.0773 support will indicate short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper retreat would be seen back to 1.0388/0581 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.1570. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD was held above 0.9453 support and recovers and the development suggests that consolidation from there is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned neutral again and stronger recovery might be seen. But upside is still expected to be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9628) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9453 will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 81.26 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110429a1.gif

[m.youssif]

At this point, GBP/JPY's rebound fro 132.98 is still in favor to continue and intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 120.37 minor support intact, current rebound in EUR/JPY is still in favor to continue towards 123.31 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31. But after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continues to stay in consolidation above 1.2728 and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for further rally. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rally is expected to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.3860 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4772 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110429b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110429b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.6744 temporary top. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.6431 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110429b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's down trend resumes by taking out 0.8670 today and reaches as low as 0.8644 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. Next. On the upside, above 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110429b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110429b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's break of 81.26 indicates that recent fall from 85.51 has resumed and intraday bias is now back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and possibly below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110429a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: April 30


The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.4881 and closed at 1.4803. Overall the bullish technical bias remains strong at least targeting 1.5000. On h4 chart below we can see price also still maintain its current bullish characteristic where the broken resistances (1.4518, 1.4647, 1.4790) become a good supports. 1.4790 is the key intraday support at this phase and as long as price stays above that area my intraday bias remains more to the upside. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4647 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish outlook should remain intact.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart16-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/eurusdh4chart16.jpg)

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook



EUR/USD jumped to as high as 1.4880 last week before making temporary top there and retreats mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But retreat is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110430w2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rose further to as high as 1.6744 last week and remained strong. Daily MACD's break of down trend line suggests that the pair is gaining momentum again. Hence, while some consolidations might be seen below 1.6744 temporary top initially this week, we'd expect downside to be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110430w2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's down trend continued last week and dropped to new record low of 0.8625. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, break of 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD soared to another record high of 1.0976 last week and remained firm. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1 psychological level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to upper channel resistance at 1.1160 next. On the downside, below 1.0862 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0675 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's down trend resumed towards the end of last week by breaking 0.9453 low and reached as low as 0.9445. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. On the upside, break of 0.9757 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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[m.youssif]

Despite brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.03 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, break of 82.76 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

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[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 0.8936 last week, EUR/GBP failed to sustain gain there and retreated. Initial bias will be neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'd continue to favor another rise as long as 0.8739 support holds. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continued to consolidate in range above 127.28 last week. With 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rebound from 116.46 extended to 121.82 last week but lost momentum since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110430w1.gif

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[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY recovered to 137.01 last week before losing momentum and retreated from there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias will be neutral this week. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. ABove 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110430w1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110430w2.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110430w3.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110430w4.gif

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher earlier today in Asian session, topped at 1.6737 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 1.6649 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6630/20 support area which could provide a good intraday support. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6550 support area but overall the major scenario remains to the upside, targeting 1.6850 – 1.7000 and any downside pressure at this phase should be seen just as a consolidation/correction movement.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish bias on Friday bottomed at 0.8624 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 0.8695. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the scenario remains strongly to the downside as long as price moves inside the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 0.8746 – 0.8779. On the downside we need a clear break below 0.8624 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8600 – 0.8500 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 81.68. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 82.00 the overall intraday bias remains to the downside, still targeting 80.85 – 79.80 support area. A clear break above 82.00 could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 82.50/73 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish bias on Friday, slipped below 120.38 but unable to stay below that area so far. Key intraday support provided by the trend line support (white) as you can see on my hourly chart below. A consistent move below 120.38 and violation to the trend line support could continue the bearish pressure testing 118.40/00 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 121.00. We need a clear break above that area to keep the bullish outlook intact testing 121.80 – 123.31 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. Price slipped below 135.50 but unable to stay below that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 135.90 the intraday bias is more to the downside testing 134.70/20. As long as price moves inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but would need a consistent movement at least back above 136.00 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 137.00 – 139.67 this week.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another new historical high earlier today in Asian session at 1.1009 but corrected lower around 1.0940 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a strong bullish outlook aiming for another new historical high projection around 1.1050 – 1.1100. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.0877 could trigger further significant bearish correction but overall my technical bias remains strongly bullish.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher earlier today in Asian session, topped at 1.4862 but further upside pressure is limited so far. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 1.4881 – 1.4767. The major scenario remains to the upside but need a clear break above 1.4881 to continue the bullish scenario at least targeting 1.5000. On the downside, a clear break below 1.4767 would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4647 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario as the major bullish trend remains intact and any bearish pressure at this phase should be seen only as a consolidation/correction movement.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly1-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly1.jpg)

[seragsamy]

متابعة متميزة ومجهود جميل أخى العزيز وتحليلات رائعة

بالتوفيق لك

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



EUR/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.4880 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen with risk of deeper retreat. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110502b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110502b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.6744 and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more sideway trading might be seen but we'd expect retreat to be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110502b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110502b2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.8759 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8759 will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110502b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110502b2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 82.75 resistance intact, fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, though, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110502b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110502b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD slipped above the range area yesterday as you can see on my hourly chart below, topped at 1.4901 but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 1.4793. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The major scenario remains bullish but still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect an upside break out still targeting 1.5000, but a clear break below 1.4767 could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4647 support area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish correction earlier today in Asian session, fell below 1.6630/20 support area and hit 1.6584. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another break below 1.6584 testing 1.6550 – 1.6500 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6650. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6737 before testing 1.6850 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains strongly bearish but looks like we have a good intraday support around 0.8624 and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.8500. On the upside, only a clear break above 0.8779 and violation to the bearish channel can be a threat to the current strong major bearish outlook.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh41-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh41.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart but overall still able to maintain its bearish intraday bias and now testing 80.85 support area, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51. A clear break below 80.85 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 (61.8%). Immediate resistance at 81.40. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 82.00 my intraday bias remains more to the downside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 121.02 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 119.74 earlier today in Asian session. On hourly chart below we can see the trend line support has been broken to the downside suggests potential further bearish pressure testing 119.50 – 118.40 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 120.38 (former support). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 121.00 resistance area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh12-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh12.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish pressure yesterday and hit 134.37 earlier today in Asian session. On hourly chart below we can see the bullish channel has been violated to the downside suggests a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 133.75 – 132.97. Immediate resistance at 135.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 135.90 but would keep the major bullish scenario intact.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh11-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh11.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0887 after made a new historical high at 1.1010. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.0877 testing 1.0820 but note that the major scenario remains strongly bullish and any downside momentum now should be seen just as a corrective movement. Immediate resistance at 1.0950. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario strong still targeting 1.1050 – 1.1100 new historical high projection.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 1.4901, EUR/USD failed to sustain gain and is back in tight range. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Below 1.4763 minor support will flip bias bias to the downside for deeper retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.6744 is still in progress and deeper retreat might be seen. But downside should be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF might be losing some downside momentum but with 0.8759 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and current decline is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8759 will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.1010 temporary top and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Some consolidations could be seen first but break of 1.0675 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.1010 will target upper channel resistance at 1.1183 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continues to trade below a falling 4 hours 55 EMA. Also, with 0.9575 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Current fall should be part of the larger down trend and is targeting 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9056, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. Above 0.9575 will argue that a short term term bottom is formed and would bring stronger rebound towards 0.9720 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 82.76 resistance intact, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, however, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8739 support intact, further rally is still expected in the cross. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment but with 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen below 137.01. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. Above 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen below 121.82. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110503a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110503a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 1.4901 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110503b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110503b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.6467 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside. At this point, we'd still expect retreat to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110503b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110503b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the dow2nside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8695 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110503b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110503b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 80.69 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 81.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110503b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110503b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally resumed by breaking 0.8936 resistance and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should now extend towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8857 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110503b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110503b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 132.98 support suggests that whole decline form 139.99 has resumed. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110503b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110503b2.gif

[Dr_aHmaaaaaD]

تسلم يا يوسف

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. Despite of broad US Dollar strength, this pair still trapped in range area of 1.4881 – 1.4767 as you can see on my hourly chart below. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where price still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect an upside break out still targeting 1.5000, but a clear break below 1.4767 /50 could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4647 support area but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday on broad US Dollar strength and now seems ready to test 1.6425 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.6550. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6737/00. On the downside, a clear break below 1.6425 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6370 and change my medium term bias into a neutral area.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below 0.8624 yesterday but further bearish pressure was limited and now back above that area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bearish scenario but would need a consistent move below 0.8624/00 to continue the bearish scenario still targeting 0.8500 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.8650. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish but as long as price stays below 0.8779 I still prefer a bearish scenario.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh42-300x191.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh42.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped below 80.85 yesterday but closed a little bit higher at 81.02. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 80.85 targeting 79.80. Immediate resistance at 81.10 followed by 81.60. A clear break above 81.60 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see price attempted to push higher but found a good resistance at the violated trend line support. This fact keeps the bearish phase intact testing 118.40/00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.38. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 121.00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh13-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh13.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday after break below the bullish channel and now seems ready to test 132.97 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.93 even lower. Immediate resistance at 134.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves below 135.00 the overall intraday bias should remain more to the downside.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday and now seems ready to test 1.0770 as you can see on my daily chart below. A clear break below 1.0770 could continue the bearish correction testing 1.0581. Immediate resistance at 1.0865 (current high). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0930 and keep the major bullish scenario remains strong.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily2-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 1.4901 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD is still staying in consolidation fro 1.6744 and intraday bias is neutral for the moment. As noted before, we'd still expect downside of the consolidation to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday in USD/CHF remains on the downside with 0.8695 minor resistance intact and current fall should be targeting 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8695 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's consolidation from 1.1010 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, break of 1.0657 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.1010 will target upper channel resistance at 1.1183 next. Though, break of 1.0675 will bring deeper pull back towards 1.0388 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's recovery from 0.9444 extends further today and the development indicates that consolidations from 0.9453 is still in progress. While stronger rise cannot be ruled out, we'd stay bearish in the pair as long as 0.9575 resistance holds and expect another decline soon. Break of 0.9444 will extend recent down trend towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9056, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. Above 0.9575 will argue that a short term term bottom is formed and would bring stronger rebound towards 0.9720 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 81.68 minor resistance intact and should be targeting 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 81.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

As noted before, the break of break of 132.98 support suggests that whole decline form 139.99 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for more consolidations. With 118.49 minor support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor and above 121.81 will target 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment and current rise should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8955 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 0.8857 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110504a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF is still bounded in range of 1.2728/2971 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen be there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110504a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110504a2.gif

[محمد نوارج]

إيه الجمال ده يا باشا ..

تسلم إيديك يا ريس ..،

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally resumes today by taking out 1.4901 resistance and reaches as high as 1.4931 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, however, break of 1.4754 support will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and should bring pull back through 1.4492 support instead.
In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110504b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110504b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/UISD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6744 continues. As noted before, we'd still expect downside of the consolidation to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110504b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110504b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 0.8552 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8645 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110504b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110504b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall extends further to as low as 80.52 in early US session and intraday bias remains ont he downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 81.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110504b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110504b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made another volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price slipped above the range area, topped at 1.4939 but closed lower at 1.4826. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. On daily chart below we can see price has been moving in a sideways condition since April 28 without consistent momentum and convincing bullish/bearish candle. The market is indecisive ahead of ECB today and US NFP tomorrow and I hope we can see clearer direction and consistent momentum after those two important events. Overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside still targeting 1.5000 even 1.5143 (November 2009 high). On the downside, 1.4767/50 still provided a good intraday support so far, but a clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.4647 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario should remain intact.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusddaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusddaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price unable to stay consistently above 1.6550/70 the intraday bias remains more to the downside, testing 1.6425 – 1.6350 and the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The major bullish scenario remains intact and the current bearish pressure is still considered as corrective movement but a break below the bullish channel will be a serious threat to the strong bullish outlook. On the upside, a clear break above 1.6550/70 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6737/00 resistance area. Fundamental focus is on BoE/MPC rate decision today and US NFP tomorrow.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily2-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart but now traded below 0.8624 suggests more bearish intraday bias still targeting 0.8500 support area. Price may keep moving in a sideways condition ahead of US NFP tomorrow, but overall my technical outlook remains strongly bearish. Immediate resistance remains around 0.8650 followed by 0.8779.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh43-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh43.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below 80.85 and hit 80.43 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 79.80 area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51). On the upside, another move back above 80.85 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 120.81 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 119.50 and hit 119.25 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 119.20 targeting 118.40/00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.38 followed by 121.00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh14-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh14.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 134.00 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 132.87 and now struggling around 132.97 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 132.97 targeting 130.20 support area. Immediate resistance remains around 134.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh41-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh41.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below 1.0770 and hit 1.0695 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0581 support area. On daily below we can see 1.0770 provided an intraday resistance. Another move back above 1.0770 would lead us to neutral zone but as long as price moves below 1.0877 the bearish correction intraday outlook remains intact. It is too early to talk about a bearish reversal scenario, but a clear break below 1.0581 may give us a good reason to think about a bearish reversal, at least in a medium term outlook.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily3-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily3.jpg)

[seragsamy]

جزيل الشكر لك أخى العزيز على المتابعة الدائمة والتحديث اليومى

بارك الله فيك

[m.youssif]

Upside momentum in EUR/USD is a bit unconvincing for the moment. But we'd continue to favor further rally with 1.4754 minor support intact. Current rise should be targeting 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, however, break of 1.4754 support will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and should bring pull back through 1.4492 support instead.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/UISD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6744 continues. As noted before, we'd still expect downside of the consolidation to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point and current decline is expected to continue to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8645 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's decline from 1.1010 extends further to as low as 1.0693 so far. The sustained trading below the near term rising trend line indicates that a short term top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD after hitting 1.1 psychological level. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone. On the upside, above 1.0876 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But consolidations would likely extend further as long as 1.1010 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 extended further to to as high as 0.9602 so far and the break of 0.9575 resistance suggests that as short term bottom is formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9677). On the downside, break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY falls further to as low as 80.21 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.9040 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8980 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 0.8857 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF is still bounded in range of 1.2728/2971 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen be there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY dips further to as low as 132.14 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

o change in EUR/JPY's outlook. With 118.49 minor support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor and above 121.82 will target 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110505a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110505a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



EUR/USD's sharp break of 1.4754 support indicates that a short term top is formed at 1.4938 after hitting upper channel resistance, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.4492 support and possibly further lower channel support (now at 1.4366). On the upside, break of 1.4938 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we'd expect more corrective trading first.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110505b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110505b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 1.6431 support intact, we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110505b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110505b2.gif

[m.youssif]

The break of 0.8552 minor resistance suggests that USD/CHF has formed a temporary low at 0.8552 already and intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8706) and above. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110505b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110505b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's decline is still in progress and extends further to as low as 79.58 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the break of 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 now sets the stage for deeper fall to retest 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.43 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110505b1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110505b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term. A clear break and daily close below the bullish channel and 1.6350 support area would be a threat to the current major bullish outlook testing 1.6160 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6450 followed by 1.6550. A clear break above 1.6550 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but would keep the major bullish scenario intact. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusddaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish correction yesterday after found a good support around 0.8555 which formed a double bottom formation. On h4 chart below we have a huge bullish candle and price is now struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above 0.8711 and violation to the bearish channel could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.8779 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.8624. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure, keep the bearish scenario remains strong retesting 0.8555 support area. Fundamental focus is on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh44-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh44.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 79.80 but closed higher at 80.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall my intraday bias remains bearish especially if price able to stay consistently below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. Immediate resistance at 80.85. A clear break and daily close above that area would be a threat to the current strong bearish outlook testing 82.00.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart4-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.13 and closed at 116.91. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 116.00 which can be a good intraday support at this phase testing 114.00 area. As you can see on my daily chart below, since the fall from 123.31, price may form a descending triangle bearish formation which would be validated on a clear break below 116.00. Immedidate resistance at 118.00 followed by 119.50. Huge movement yesterday forces our support/resistance level much wider so unless you have a good risk – reward ratio, do not rush jumping into the market.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 130.89 after made a clear break below 132.97 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 130.20. Immediate resistance at 132.97, which is the best place for a short position with good risk –reward ratio. A clear break above 132.97 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 134.00 area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh42-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh42.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 1.0581 but had a strong bullish pullback earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0733. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains bullish but price is still in a bearish correction/consolidation phase. A clear break and daily close below 1.0581 could continue the bearish correction. Immediate resistance at 1.0770. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0877 . We need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to keep the major bullish scenario strong aiming for another new all time high projection.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a huge bearish pullback yesterday after break below the range area, bottomed at 1.4509 and closed at 1.4557. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4450 support area which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939, which also located around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Note that as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact, but a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.4150 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Immediate resistance at 1.4730. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusddaily2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusddaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/USD at 1.4938. Pull back from there is still in progress and should be targeting lower channel support (now at 1.4377). On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110506a1.gif

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110506a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6431 support indicates that a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias is now back to the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110506a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 extended further and touched 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will extend recent down trend and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110506a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD made a temporary low at 1.0536 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Another fall might be seen as long as 1.0788 minor resistance holds and below 1.0536 will target 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. Above 1.0788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for a retest on 1.1010. But decisive break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption or consolidations would likely extend further with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term bottom is formed in USD/CAD at 0.9444. Rebound from there extended to as high as 0.9710 so far and met 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise could still be seen as long as 0.9567 minor support holds, towards falling channel resistance (now at 0.9781). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY formed a temporary low at 79.85 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some sideway consolidations could be seen first. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

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[m.youssif]

Whole decline from 123.31 in EUR/JPY is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Focus remains on 113.54 support and as long as this support holds, we'd still favor the case for rebound from 106.57 to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 113.54 will put focus back to 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's strong break of 1.2728 confirms that whole fall from 1.3234 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for deeper fall. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and current decline should now target a new low below 1.2401. On the upside, above 1.2762 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.2971 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

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[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/GBP at 0.9041 and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 0.8857. Break will confirm this case and bring deeper pull back towards 38.2% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8752. On the upside, break of 0.9401 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidation with risk of another fall even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside and fall from 139.99 would extend further to 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

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[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook



Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment and current pull back from 1.4938 short term top is still expected to continue to lower channel support (now at 1.4385) and possibly lower. On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops to as low a 1.6354 earlier today before recovering mildly. As noted before for a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110506b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF rebounds further to as high as 0.8794 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first. Further break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110506b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's recovery from 79.58 is still in progress and might extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.16) and above. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD

Weekly Summary: Important supports broken, bearish correction likely to continue


The EURUSD had a significant bearish correction this week, bottomed at 1.4308 and closed at 1.4314 after unable to make a clear break above 1.4900, made a huge bearish candle on the weekly chart. On daily chart below we can see two support regions had been broken to the downside: The bullish channel was violated and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939 had been breached. This fact could continue the bearish correction testing 1.4150 (38.2%) even 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4600 followed by 1.4750. Long term bullish scenario remains intact, but my short and medium term outlooks are now in a bearish mode.

http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusddaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusddaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook



EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.4938 last week and fell sharply to close at 1.4314. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6355 last week. A short term top top is at least in place and initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dropped further to 0.8552 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0536 last week but managed to draw support from 1.0388/0581 support and formed a temporary low there and recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1194. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 0.9701 last week after forming a short term bottom at 0.9444. With 0.9567 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9778). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 79.58 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rose to 0.9041 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8744. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Note that break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 1.2575 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2401 first. As noted before, whole consolidation patter from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 115.20 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

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[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's fall from 139.99 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 130.88 before recovering mildly. Further decline remains in favor initially this week and focus will be on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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[m.youssif]

....................................

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a strong bearish momentum on Thursday and Friday after break below the range area and hit 1.4308. There were some upside pullback earlier today in Asian session but as long as price stays below 1.4518 resistance area my intraday bias remains more to the downside now testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. A clear break back above 1.4518 would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 1.4600. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we need to see a clear break above 1.4900 to see further bullish scenario testing 1.5000. Huge movement forces our support/resistance much wider but we must keep our risk –reward ratio in a good level.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdh4chart-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdh4chart.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD still able to maintain its bearish phase so far and slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact not only could continue the bearish phase in nearest term testing 1.6280 but also a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.6425/50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6500 but I think we need at least a clear break above 1.6600 to keep the major bullish scenario remains strong.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction on Friday, slipped above 0.8779 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.8779 targeting 0.8900. Immediate support at 0.8710. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the major bearish scenario.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh45-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh45.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped above 80.85 on Friday but still unable to stay above that area so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario but a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further upside pullback testing 82.00. On the downside, we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 78.24 even 76.21.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, closed at 115.39 but opened higher earlier today in Asian session at 116.23, made a gap as easily seen on hourly/h4 chart. As long as price moves below 116.00 my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance at 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily1-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still targeting 130.20. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 134.00 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh43-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh43.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bearish correction was paused on Friday after unable to stay consistently below 1.0581 and now struggling around 1.0770. The bias is neutral in nearest term but unless we have a consistent move back above 1.0877 the bearish correction scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0660. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusdh4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusdh4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, i mentioned that many believed that the current bullish run is far overextended. 1.48 – 1.5 seems to be a hard ceiling and with the US Non-Farm Payroll due, we may expect the unexpected.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FciTnpn3q6s/TcaF-KfrkPI/AAAAAAAACu4/f_UTXDxjkao/s400/1.jpg (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FciTnpn3q6s/TcaF-KfrkPI/AAAAAAAACu4/f_UTXDxjkao/s1600/1.jpg)
Looking at the EUR/USD Daily chart above, we note an extremely bearish last two days for the week.
While the currency pair ranged tightly during the first part of the week, the European Central Bank interest rate decision in the mid week probably started the bearish correction. Many investors were expecting a hike in the European interest rate due to the inflation risks. It remained status quo instead. Knee jerk reactions probably sent the EUR/USD down due to an Euro currency sell off.
Towards the end of the week, more developments happened. First it was the US Non-Farm Payroll turning out to be better than expected. While this drove more sentiments in favor of the recovering economy of America, the unexpected hike in unemployment rate probably caused confusion and disappointment. It stands at 9% now. Secondly, there was speculation that Greece may exit the Euro currency. As it is widely believed that such actions undermine the stability and confidence of the Euro currency, a knee jerk selling of the Euro currency probably happened.
***
From a technical point of view, the bullish momentum had come a long way. We were nearing the 1.5 level and the currency pair was at the upper trend line. The little support the lower trend line offered was indicative of the strong sell off. If the currency pair attempts to climb back into the EUR/USD bullish channel, 1.46+/- will be probably the line to watch out for. A dip below 1.42 will probably suggest a greater bearish correction.
While we all know of the problems of the American economy, the job market and housing market, let us not forget that the Euro Zone faces challenges too. The Euro Zone budget deficit crisis is still lurking and the different characteristics of the various Euro Zone countries make any coordinated policy challenging to implement.
Next is heavy on crucial economic reports such as the US TIC Long-Term Purchases and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Hence it is important that your money management is properly implemented.
Trade Safely.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside with 0.8821 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110509a1.gif
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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment and current fall from 1.3234 is still in progress for a retest on 1.2401 low. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110509a1.gif
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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for further fall towards 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00), which is the main near term focus. Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110509a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110509a2.gif

[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with 117.57 minor resistance intact and current fall could extend through 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110509a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110509a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 79.58 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110509a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.4587 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.4938 short term top is still in favor to extend further towards 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110509a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside and fall from 1.6744 short term top is still in progress for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110509a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110509a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 short term bottom could still continue towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110509a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110509a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen first. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110509a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110509a2.gif

[محمد نوارج]

بارك الله في هذا الجهد إن شاء الله وأفاد به الجميع ..،

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.4278 in early US session so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110509b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110509b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 short term top extends further to as low as 1.6309 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6406 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110509b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110509b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term bottom could still extend towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110509b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110509b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110509b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110509b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 1.2548 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110509b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110509b2.gif

[معاذ عودات]

شكرا يا غالي ..
بارك الله فيك على هذا التحليل الجميل

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4253 but closed higher at 1.4367 made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On hourly chart below we can see since the breakdown below the range area price still making lower highs indicated that the bearish phase should remain intact, still targeting 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.4375 followed by 1.4438. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break at least above 1.4518 to see further bullish pressure which could end or at least pause the current short term strong bearish correction outlook.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly4-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, hit my intraday bearish target around 1.6280, but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed significantly higher at 1.6405. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves outside the bullish channel and below 1.6425/50 resistance area the bearish phase should remain intact. Immediate support at 1.6340. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias back to bearish again retesting 1.6280. Below 1.6280, there is a support around 1.6164 to be tested. On the upside, a clear break above 1.6450 would halt the short term bearish outlook, but I think we need a clear break at least back above 1.6600 to end the current bearish correction and keep the major bullish scenario strong.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish correction was paused yesterday, but 0.8710 still provided a good intraday support so far. Looks like price trapped in a range area of 0.8779 – 0.8710 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer intraday bias. A clear break above 0.8779 could continue the bullish correction testing 0.8900 while a clear break below 0.8710 could trigger further downside pressure testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break below 0.8555 to end the bullish correction phase and continue the major bearish scenario.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh46-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh46.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 80.85. On hourly chart below we can see price still trapped in range area of 80.85 – 79.80 (50% – 61.8%) and need a clear break on either side to see clearer intraday bias. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and expect a clear break below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. On the upside, a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 82.00 but only a clear break back above 82.00 could be a threat to the current short term strong bearish outlook.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart6-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart6.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 115.01 and closed at 115.18. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance remains around 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily2-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily2.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 131.21 but traded higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 131.92. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Potential range area between 132.97 – 130.20 but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break above 132.97 would halt the current strong bearish outlook testing 134.00/25 resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 128.45 support area even lower. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh44-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh44.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. There are no significant movement so far and price still struggling around 0.0770. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Although the bearish pressure seems losing its momentum now, we need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to end the current bearish correction phase and continue the major bullish scenario retesting 1.1010 even aiming for new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0700. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusdh41-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusdh41.jpg)

[m.youssif]

At this point, further decline is still in favor in EUR/GBP as long as 0.8817 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8817 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside with 1.2628 minor resistance intact and further decline should be seen to 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Further decline could still be seen in GBP/JPY with 134.23 minor resistance intact. Focus will remain on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY dips further to as low as 114.79 so far and met mentioned 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Further decline is still in favor with 117.57 minor resistance intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary is still in progress and further recovery could be seen. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Further decline is still mildly in favor in EUR/USD with 1.4440 minor resistance intact and current fall from 1.4938 could extend to 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6406 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 1.6269 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another fall is still expected as long as 1.6573 resistance holds. Below 1.6269 will target 1.6166 support first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term low is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8707 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.1010 is still in progress and could extend further with another fall. Below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. Further rise is still in favor with 0.9567 minor support intact, towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9761). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110510a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110510a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD might have formed a temporary low at 1.4254 but another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.4440 minor resistance holds. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110510b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110510b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had another volatile but indecisive market yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Overall price is still in a bearish phase since the fall from 1.4939 but we have a violated falling wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below suggests potential threat to the current short term strong bearish outlook testing 1.4518 resistance area ( 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.4253) especially if price able to move consistently above 1.4415/38 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.4253). Immediate support at 1.4320. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4253 support area and keep the bearish phase testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 intact.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was able to maintain its bearish bias yesterday and found a good intraday resistance around 1.6425 and still moves below the bullish channel. However, I think the bias remains neutral in nearest term as price might be in a consolidation phase and need a clear break below 1.6280 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.6164. On the upside, 1.6425/50 remains a key resistance and a clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.6600.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction yesterday, broke above 0.8779 and topped at 0.8822. This fact could continue the bullish correction scenario targeting 0.8900 in nearest term. On the downside, another move below 0.8779 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8710 and may keep price in a sideways condition. The major bearish scenario remains intact but would need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the bearish scenario.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh47-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh47.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday and now struggling around 80.85 resistance area. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle formation suggests potential upside scenario especially if price able to move consistently above 80.85 testing 82.00 key resistance area. The bearish outlook since the fall from 85.51 remains intact but need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario testing 78.24 even 76.21.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart7-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart7.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish bias yesterday and now traded above 116.00 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above the minor trend line resistance (red) and 116.88 testing 117.50 even 119.25 resistance area. However, as long as price moves below the major trend line resistance (white) the bearish scenario since the fall from 123.31 should remain intact. On the downside, another move back below 116.00 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 114.00 support area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh4-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpyh4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday on broad Yen weakness but still trapped in the range area. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook and as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 134.00. Immediate support at 131.50 followed by 130.20.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh45-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh45.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday and now seems ready to test 1.0877 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0877 targeting 1.1010 which could end the bearish correction phase after the failure to make a clear break below 1.0581, aiming for another new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0770. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area and keep the bearish correction outlook intact.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusdh42-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusdh42.jpg)

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Another fall is still in favor with 1.4440 minor resistance intact. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110511b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110511b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebounds to as high as 1.6515 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.6573 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall is still in favor with 1.6573 resistance intact. Below 1.6269 will resume the whole decline from 1.6744 to 1.6166 support first. Break will target 1.5935 key near term support next. However, above 1.6573 will indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110511b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110511b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.8848 so far in early US session, just inch below mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. Further rise could still be seen with 0.8707 minor support intact but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8707 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110511b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110511b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rises further to 81.31 so far in early US session and recovery from 79.58 is still in progress Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110511b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110511b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's strong rebound from 130.88 today suggests that correction from 139.99 might be completed at 130.88, ahead of mentioned 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 134.23 minor resistance will affirm this case and target 137.01. Further break there should resume rebound from 122.40 to 139.99 and above. On the downside, we'd still favor the case of further rally as long as 130.17 cluster support holds. Nevertheless, decisive break of 130.17 will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110511b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110511b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 1.4415/38 resistance area, bottomed at 1.4171 and closed at 1.4206. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear/strong break below 1.4171/50 targeting 1.4000. Since the fall from 1.4939 we have been seeing important supports were broken one by one by strong bearish pressure and so far there is no sign of Euro recovery and no significant support until 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break at least above 1.4500 could stop/pause the current strong bearish outlook.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdh4chart1-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdh4chart1.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price broke above 1.6425/50 resistance area, topped at 1.6516 but whipsawed to the downside and closed at 1.6365. The bias remains neutral in nearest term, but yesterday’s bullish failure with strong selling activities should give us more downside intraday bias testing 1.6280. A clear break below that area would trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6164 even would drag my attention to further bearish outlook toward 1.6000. On the upside, another move above 1.6425/50 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but only a clear break above 1.6600 would be a threat to the current bearish outlook.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart4-300x188.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.8882 and closed at 0.8860. Former resistance 0.8779 provided a good intraday support as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.8900. A clear break above that area would trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9000. On the downside, only a clear break back below 0.8779 could halt the current strong bullish intraday outlook since the violation to the major bearish channel.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh48-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh48.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart, but so far still able to maintain its bullish intraday bias by moving above 80.85 and the ascending triangle formation as you can see on my h4 chart below suggests further potential bullish pullback testing 82.00. Another move back below 80.85 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario since the fall from 85.51.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart8-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart8.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, erased all bullish momentum on Tuesday and now traded back below 116.00 suggests potential bearish continuation, still targeting 114.00 in nearest term. Another clear break above 116.00 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear and might lead us to a sideways intraday condition. On the upside, we need a clear break at least above 117.00 to halt the current strong bearish intraday outlook. CCI relatively in negative area on hourly, h4 and daily chart suggests a bearish view.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily3-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily3.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push higher, broke above 132.97, but whipsawed to the downside after found resistance around 134.00. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as direction still unclear and my wait and see mode is now activated. Immediate support at 132.40. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 131.80 and reopen the door for another downside scenario testing 130.20. On the upside, a clear break above 134.00/25 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 135.00.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpydaily-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpydaily.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 1.0877, break below 1.0770 and hit 1.0585 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that 1.0581/40 still considered as a strong intraday support and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.0440 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.0704 (current high). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price stays below 1.0877 the bearish phase should remain intact.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's fall from 1.4938 extended further to as low as 1.4172 but is still holding above 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). At this point, we'd still expect downside to be contained by this 1.4149/57 support level and bring rebound. Above 1.4422 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 high first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will indicate that whole rise from 1.2873 is finished and should bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3445 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's recovery was brief and was limited at 1.6515 and weakens again. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 1.6573 minor resistance intact, another fall remains in favor. Below 1.6269 will resume the whole decline from 1.6744 to 1.6166 support first. Break will target 1.5935 key near term support next. However, above 1.6573 will indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF rises further to as high as 0.8885 so far and broke mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. Further rise could still be seen with 0.8783 minor support intact, But we'd expect strong resistance at 0.8895/9006 resistance zone to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8783 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 low first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's recovery was limited at 1.0887 and subsequent sharp decline suggests that correction from 1.1010 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0526 and then 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, though, above 1.0887 will turn focus back to 1.1010 high instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/audusd20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's fall from 0.9710 was brief and the recovery dampened the immediate bearish view of down trend resumption. Instead, focus is back on 0.9710/20 resistance zone. Sustained break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512). In such case, USD/CAD should have bottomed out in near term and stronger rise should be seen towards 0.9972 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9512 will turn focus back to 0.9444 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as recovery from 79.58 continues. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited below 134.23 and weakens again. The failure below 134.23 suggests that fall from 139.99 is possibly still in progress and focus remains on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. nevertheless, strong support from 130.17 and break of 134.23 will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is not finished and should flip bias back to the upside for 137.01 and then 139.99.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's recovery was limited below 117.57 minor resistance and fall from 123.31 resumed by edging lower to 114.55. Further decline could still be seen with 117.57 intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2484 temporary low continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Overall outlook in the cross remains unchanged. consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.2484 should send EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.9041 extended further to as low as 0.8672 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. The deeper than expected fall opens up the case that rise from 0.8284 support is finished at 0.9041 already. Focus is now on 0.8671 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 0.8284 key support next. Though, we didn't totally give up the bullish case yet. Strong rebound from the current level and break of 0.8817 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9041 resistance.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110512a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110512a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and dips to as low as 1.4122 so far today. While further decline is still in favor, focus remains on whether 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) would hold eventually. Strong rebound form the current level and break of 1.4422 minor resistance will retain the bullish outlook and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will indicate that whole rise from 1.2873 is finished and should bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3445 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110512b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110512b2.gif

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6269 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6744 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, break of 1.6515 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.6744. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110512b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110512b2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 could extend further towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.8974). Though, we'd continue to expect expect strong resistance at 0.8895/9006 resistance zone to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8783 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 low first. However, sustained break of 0.9006 resistance will raise the possibility of medium term bottoming and would bring stringer rise to 0.9339 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110512b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110512b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's sideway consolidation form 79.58 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110512b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110512b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4123 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4276 but traded lower and hit 1.4183 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 1.4250/80 – 1.4123. Since the failure of the falling wedge bullish scenario as you can see on my hourly chart below, I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still testing 1.4000 support area. Immediate support at 1.4171. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.4123 and might give us an early indication to another bearish attempt testing 1.4000. On the upside, immediate resistance remains around 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.4350 – 1.4420 resistance area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly6-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly6.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday and now traded below 1.6280 support area, suggests potential further bearish outlook testing 1.6164 in nearest term. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish continuation testing 1.6000 support area. On the upside, another move back above 1.6280 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6320/70 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart5-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpusdh4chart5.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday made a Doji on daily chart. The bullish correction scenario was paused after unable to make a clear break above 0.8900 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is still in a bullish correction phase but need a clear break above 0.8900 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9000. Immediate support remains around 0.8779. A clear break below that area could be a threat to the current bullish correction outlook testing 0.8555 key support area.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh49-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdchfh49.jpg)

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Price is now struggling around 80.85 support area. Another clear break below that area and the trend line support (red) could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 but note that we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario since the fall from 85.51. As long as price stays above 79.80 price is still in a consolidation phase from an h4 chart point of view.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart9-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/usdjpyh4chart9.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 114.17 but closed higher at 115.27. There are some downside pressures earlier today in Asian session and another clear break below 114.50 could trigger another bearish pressure retesting 114.00 support area. A clear break below 114.00 could continue the bearish scenario testing 112.05. Immediate resistance remains around 116.00 followed by 117.00/50.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily4-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurjpydaily4.jpg)

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 132.97 and hit 131.27 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we seem to have a good intraday support around 130.90 as you can see on my h4 chart below. We need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 130.20. A clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 129.16 support area. Immediate resistance at 132.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 132.97 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh46-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/gbpjpyh46.jpg)

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 1.0581/40 support area and traded higher around 1.0627 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that after the fall from 1.1010 historical high, price made a lower high at 1.0887 where a trend line resistance can be drawn. As long as price stays below 1.0887 and the trend line resistance, this pair is still in a bearish correction outlook, but need a clear break below 1.0581/40 to continue the bearish phase testing 1.0440 even lower. Immediate resistance remains around 1.0704 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0750 – 1.0779 resistance area, even testing the trend line resistance. The major bullish scenario remains intact but my bullish mode will be reactivated at least by a movement above the trend line resistance and 1.0887, aiming for another new historical high. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily6-300x190.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/audusddaily6.jpg)

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish weekly outlook threatened as bearish continues


The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum this week, bottomed at 1.4065 and closed at 1.4115 on Friday. The Euro failed to continue the bullish outlook which led by the breakout above the trend line resistance on April and now slipped back below the trend line resistance as you can see on my weekly chart below and price is now testing April’s low at 1.4061. A clear break below 1.4061 – 1.4000 key support area could trigger further bearish outlook testing 1.3782 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1875 – 1.4939. Immediate resistance at 1.4200 followed by 1.4440. As long as price moves below 1.4440 my short/medium technical bias remains to the downside.
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[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook


EUR/USD's fall from 1.4938 extended further to as low as 1.4066 last week and the break of 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) argues that whole rise from 1.2873 has completed at 1.4938 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside initially this week and deeper fall should now be seen to 1.3427/3860 support zone next. On the upside, above 1.4338 resistance is needed to suggest near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.
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[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's decline from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6416 last week and broke 1.6166 support. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
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[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 extended further to as high as 0.8495 last week and is now in key near term resistance zone of 0.8895/9006. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with focus on 0.9006 resistance. Sustained break there will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, reversal from the current resistance zone of 0.8895/9006, followed by break of 0.8797 minor support will retain the bearish case and flip bias back to the downside for a new low below 0.8552.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.
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[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's consolidation from 1.1010 continued last week with another dip towards the end. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, above 1.0715 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.0887 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.
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[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 resumed by taking out 0.9710/20 last week. More important, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term revive and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
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[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continued to consolidate above 79.58 temporary low last week and outlook remains unchanged. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But evening that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.
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[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP dropped further to 0.8672 last week but drew support from 0.8671 resistance turned support and near term rising channel and recovered. However, upside is so far upside below 0.8817 minor resistance and thus, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. A break of 0.8672 will indicate resumption of fall from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8422). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.
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[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dropped further to 1.2484 last week then turned sideway. INitial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.
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[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 extended further to as low as 113.49 last week and remains weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development raised the possibility that the 105.42 is not yet the bottom. In case of another fall, we'll continue to look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.
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[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited at 134.00 and subsequent break of 130.88 support confirmed that whole decline from 139.99 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained break of 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.
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[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.4065 and hit 1.4047 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.4000 key support area. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3700 area this week. Immediate resistance at 1.4123 – 1.4150. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4200 but overall my short/medium term technical bias remains strongly to the downside and no sign of potential recovery for the single currency so far. CCI remains in negative territory on hourly, h4 and daily chart suggests a bearish view.
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[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6145 but still unable to move consistently below 1.6164 support area so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.6164 testing 1.6000 – 1.5970 key support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6230/50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6300/50 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.
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[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum on Friday and now traded above 0.8900 suggests further bullish correction continuation testing 0.9000 in nearest term. On the downside, another move back below 0.8900 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price stays above 0.8779 we are still in a bullish phase which started after the breakout above the bearish channel and I still prefer a bullish intraday outlook at this phase.
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[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement on Friday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price is moving in a sideways mode. On daily chart below we can see the bearish momentum since the fall from 85.51 found a support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51 around 79.80 and the trend line support. We also have a hammer candle stick formation which stopped the bearish momentum. We need a clear break below the trend line support and 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario. As long as price stays above 80.85 the intraday technical bias remains more to the upside, but also need a clear break above 81.33 to continue the bullish momentum testing 82.00 resistance area. Hourly CCI remains in a bullish territory while h4 and daily in a neutral zone.
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[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, fell below 114.00 but still struggling around that area so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 114.00 targeting 112.05. Immediate resistance at 114.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 115.50 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.
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[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday but bounced a little bit higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 131.18 after found a support around 130.20. The bias is neutral in nearest term and price also still trapped in a range area. I still prefer a bearish scenario but need a clear break below 130.20 to continue the bearish pressure testing 127.77. Immediate resistance at 131.55 followed by 132.30.
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[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, fell below 1.0540 and struggling around that area now. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 1.0540 targeting 1.0440 – 1.0388 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.0620. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 1.0700 and the trend line resistance (white) my short/medium outlook remains more to the downside with potential medium bearish target around 1.0200.
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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, whole rise from 1.2873 has possibly completed at 1.4938 already. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.4338 resistance holds, towards 1.3427/3860 support zone next. Though, a break of 1.4338 will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.6307 minor resistance and further decline should be seen towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.
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[m.youssif]

With 0.8797 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside but focus is still on 0.9006 resistance. Sustained break there will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9005) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, reversal from the current resistance zone of 0.8895/9006, followed by break of 0.8797 minor support will retain the bearish case and flip bias back to the downside for a new low below 0.8552.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.
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[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside as correction from 1.1010 would extend further towards 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, above 1.0715 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.0887 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
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[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term reversal and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdcad20110516a2.gif

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Consolidation from 79.58 is still in progress and with 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110516a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110516a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110516a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpjpy20110516a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110516a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurjpy20110516a2.gif

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2484 continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110516a1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurchf20110516a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP continues to stay in tight range above 0.8672 after it drew support from near term rising channel and intraday bias remains neutral. Nevertheless, note again that with 0.8813 minor resistance intact, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. On the downside, below 0.8672 will resume the decline from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8429). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurgbp20110516a2.gif

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD formed a temporary low at 1.4047 on lost of downside momentum and recovers. But still, with 1.4338 resistance intact, fall from 1.4938 is expected to resume sooner or later. As noted before, whole rise from 1.2873 has possibly completed at 1.4938 already. Below 1.4047 will target 1.3427/3860 support zone next. Though, a break of 1.4338 will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/eurusd20110516b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 1.6307 minor resistance intact, intraday bias GBP/USD remains on the downside. Current decline from 1.6744 is expected to continue towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/gbpusd20110516b2.gif

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top should be in place at 0.8945 and intraday bias is turned neutral. USD/CHF is still limited inside near term falling channel and there is no indicate of reversal. Below 0.8797 will suggest that corrective rebound from 0.8552 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption. On the upside, focus will remain on 0.9006. Sustained break there will will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9005) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, before that, we'll stay bearish.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.
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http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdchf20110516b2.gif

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continued to stay in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110516b1.gif
http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/actionforex/usdjpy20110516b2.gif

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4243 but closed lower at 1.4144. On hourly chart below we can see since the strong break below the range area price made some upside pullback but still making lower highs before continue the bearish run and hit new daily lows. From this point of view, yesterday’s bullish pullback was normal and the current strong bearish outlook remains intact especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.4123/50, still targeting 1.4000 which is a key support level at this phase. Immediate resistance at 1.4243 (yesterday’s high). I don’t expect another bullish pullback above that area as it could diminish the current strong bearish outlook testing 1.4330/50 resistance area and activate my wait and see mode.
http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly8-300x189.jpg (http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdna-cdn.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/eurusdhourly8.jpg)